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Category: Nokia
October 22nd, 2009
Nokia sues Apple, alleges patent infringement by iPhone
The world’s biggest cell phone maker is dragging the maker of one of the most popular cell phones to court over patent infringement. Nokia said today that it has filed suit against Apple, alleging that the iPhone infringes on Nokia’s patents for GSM, UMTS and wireless LAN (WLAN) standards.
The suit surrounds ten patents that cover wireless data, speech coding, security and encryption. Nokia alleges that all infringement has occured since Apple shipped the first iPhone in 2007. In a press release, Ilkka Rahnasto, Vice President, Legal & Intellectual Property at Nokia, said:
The basic principle in the mobile industry is that those companies who contribute in technology development to establish standards create intellectual property, which others then need to compensate for. Apple is also expected to follow this principle. By refusing to agree appropriate terms for Nokia’s intellectual property, Apple is attempting to get a free ride on the back of Nokia’s innovation.
October 15th, 2009
Nokia posts third quarter loss; Mobile device demand improving
Nokia saw weak mobile phone sales in the third quarter, but said the mobile device industry won’t fall as much as it had feared in 2009.
Overall, Nokia reported a surprise loss of 559 million euro, or $836 million. The company on Thursday said it wrote down the value of its telecom equipment unit, Nokia Siemens. Nokia third quarter revenue was down 20 percent from a year ago and down 1 percent from the second quarter.
Nokia is a good global demand indicator for mobile devices even though it’s largely a non-entity in the U.S. Nokia shipped 108.5 million mobile devices, down 8 percent from a year ago, but up 7 percent from the second quarter. Nokia estimated that its mobile device market share held steady at 38 percent (Techmeme, statement, PDF results).
According to Nokia CEO Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo mobile device demand “improved in many markets.” However, Kallasvuo said that component shortages hurt volume and sales.
For 2009, Nokia projected mobile device industry volume to be about 1.12 billion, down 7 percent from a year ago. Nokia had projected a decline of 10 percent. For the Nokia-Siemens telecom equipment venture Nokia said that the industry will fall about 5 percent in 2009. Nokia had projected a decline of 10 percent for the industry. Nokia Siemens, however, will lose more market share than expected, the company said.
October 5th, 2009
Adobe has the iPhone surrounded with Flash, but security headaches loom
Adobe’s announcements that a full version of Flash is coming to every smartphone not named Apple iPhone leave me conflicted. Full-blown Flash can be a boon to the mobile Web, but has the potential to become one huge security headache.
First the happy talk (Techmeme, Adobe statement): A public beta of Flash Player 10.1 will be coming to Windows Mobile and Palm’s WebOS later this year. Next year will bring Flash betas to Google Android and Symbian phones. Research in Motion is also working with Adobe. Multi-touch Flash, accelerometer perks and other mobile goodies abound.
And from an tech vendor art of war perspective, Adobe’s news that full Flash capabilities are coming to Windows Mobile phones, Palm, RIM and Google Android phones is very interesting. Apple is the last mobile handset holdout when it comes to Flash adoption. Sure, the two parties are kind of sorta talking about Flash on the iPhone—and have been for months—but the effort isn’t going anywhere. Can Adobe force iPhone adoption by delivering up a Flash-powered mobile utopia on the small screen?
And then you trip over the big honking negative: Security. From a user perspective, Flash your mobile phone may be nice, but can also be a big drag. The patches, the vulnerabilities, the frequent upgrades and the potential monoculture headaches. Monoculture for our purposes refers to one dominant technology that pervades multiple fronts. Windows is a monoculture. Flash is a monoculture. Anything that’s a standard is a monoculture. The problem with monocultures: You can attack them and cause a lot of collateral damage because there’s no diversity.
Adrian Kingsley-Hughes nails it when he handicaps Adobe’s Open Screen Project that will be bringing full Flash to a mobile phone throughout 2010.
Flash Player is an absolute security nightmare on desktop PCs, and requiring endless updates. I’m not sure how thrilled I’d be to be faced with Flash Player updates on my smartphone every time I was to go browsing. If I’m paying per MB, on a dodgy connection (and chances are that one, if not both of these factors will come into play), I’d be even more upset. I know that the modern web relies heavily on Flash, but this announcement worries me because it’s creating a huge tech monoculture that’s ripe for attack. Unless Adobe is planning on beefing up security, this could be one of the worst things to happen to smartphone users.
Don’t believe Adrian. Check out the Flash vulnerability fiesta from Ryan Naraine and Dancho Danchev. Flash remains unpatched by most users, is frequently open to attack and outfits like Mozilla Firefox are trying to push folks to patch Flash for the greater good.
How many of you have bothered to patch anything on your mobile phone? Thought so.
And now we’re taking Flash to every screen. For Adobe, full-featured Flash on every mobile phone is huge. The rest of us may not be as thrilled about today’s happenings once the mundane processes such as frequent Flash patches take over.
August 26th, 2009
BlackBerry, iPhone dominate list of 10 best-selling U.S. smartphones of Q2
The earnings reports of most of the big public technology companies for Q2 2009 were a lot like “confessionals,” as my colleague Larry Dignan likes to say. Most segments of the tech industry are struggling through lower sales and an uncertain forecast for the rest of 2009.
One of tech’s few bright spots is smartphones. Gartner reported that worldwide mobile phone unit sales were down 6 per cent in Q2 2009 (compared to Q2 2008), but smartphone unit sales were up 27% for the same period.
Meanwhile, IDC reported that the worldwide mobile phone unit sales were down a steeper 10.8% in Q2 compared to Q2 2008. And while IDC also found strength in smartphones, the analyst house noted that competition was fierce and a price war had broken out:
August 24th, 2009
Booklet 3G could play to Nokia's strength in hardware [video]
Nokia announced on Monday that it is expanding beyond the cellphone and handheld computer market by launching its first notebook PC called the Nokia Booklet 3G. This is a head-scratching move by Nokia and most tech journalists are already panning the idea.
However, as I mentioned to Randall Bennett on TechVi (watch video clip below), Nokia is an excellent hardware maker and this could turn out to be one of the best Windows 7 netbooks or mini-notebooks on the market.
August 13th, 2009
Microsoft-Nokia: A dog of a deal born from weakness
As I was pondering the Microsoft-Nokia partnership I was hit with some inspiration from the movie Hotel for Dogs, a favorite of the kiddiepoos.
Remember the scene where the dogs were running in the street? Nokia and Microsoft were the big ones that were struggling to keep up. A few blocks ago they led, but now more nimble players—notably Research in Motion and Apple—are in front of the pack.
Simply put, Nokia and Microsoft are the equivalent of two St. Bernards that are forced to run in 90 degree heat and high humidity. They’re big. They’re winded. And they could knock you over—if they could only catch you.
The turn of events is notable. After all, Nokia and Microsoft used to be in front of the pack. Nokia arguably still is—but isn’t likely to hold the lead for long.
According to Gartner:
- Nokia had 45 percent market share in smartphones in the second quarter, down from 47.4 percent a year ago.
- Research in Motion had 18.7 percent of the smartphone market in the second quarter, up from 17.3 percent a year ago. Apple had 13.3 percent of the smartphone market, up from 2.8 percent a year ago.
- Microsoft’s Windows Mobile represents 9 percent of the smartphone operating systems out there, with Nokia’s Symbian at 51 percent, down from 57 percent a year ago.
If you add those figures up and stir you can almost hear this eureka moment coming from the headquarters of Nokia and Microsoft:
Microsoft: “Windows Mobile is an also-ran, but we’ve got to get Mobile Office, which needs work, on handsets somehow.”
Nokia: “I’m getting whacked in the enterprise. Damn RIM.”
Microsoft and Nokia: “Let’s combine forces!”
The rub. There’s not a lot of meat on this Microsoft-Nokia partnership. Mary Jo Foley reports:
The only product to which there’s a timetable commitment from the pair is Office Communicator for Mobile. Microsoft and Nokia said that will be on Nokia E Series phones some time in 2010. When I asked Microsoft and Nokia officials for details about how they plan to get Office Mobile and System Center Device Manager on the Symbian operating system, officials had no information to share. It sounded like the two have a roadmap but nothing more at this point.
It’s no wonder that analysts were less than enthusiastic about this Microsoft-Nokia partnership. Goldman Sachs was the grumpiest of the lot.
Goldman Sachs analyst Sarah Friar writes in a research note:
In our view, the (Microsoft-Nokia) announcement speaks more to the weakness of the partners in the mobile arena, rather than reflecting a move from a position of strength. While we see innovation returning across the board at Microsoft, Windows Mobile remains the weakest link in the portfolio, and hence we believe that (the) announcement is more of a show-me story than an indication of a major trajectory change.
On Nokia Friar notes:
We view this announcement as a small positive, but think it is unlikely to change Nokia’s smartphone positioning in a meaningful way.
Friar’s colleague across the pond was less charitable. Goldman Sachs analyst Tim Boddy writes:
We now believe that the benefits of an end-demand recovery will be offset by market share loss, while Nokia is unlikely to refresh its high-end product range in a meaningful way before mid-2010, leaving few near-term catalysts. Looking into 2H2010 and beyond, rising competitive threats from a new generation of much more formidable competitors, combined with Nokia’s weak recent track-record in developing software/solutions, mean that visibility on a recovery is low.
Simply put, Nokia and Microsoft are now the passive dogs in the smartphone market. They may never be leaders of the pack again.
August 12th, 2009
Microsoft Mobile Office needed Nokia, Symbian
If you’re in the U.S. you can hardly restrain the yawns about the Nokia-Microsoft pact to bring Office Mobile to Symbian phones. Zoom out globally and the Microsoft-Nokia partnership is an important beachhead for the software giant.
Under an agreement, Nokia and Microsoft will begin collaborating to bring Microsoft Office Mobile and communications, collaboration and device management software to Nokia’s Symbian phones. From a U.S. perspective, the deal is meaningless—you’ll be hard pressed to find Nokia phones—especially smartphones.
Internationally, however, Microsoft’s partnership with Nokia could be a big deal. If Microsoft wants global Mobile Office adoption the company has to run on more than just Windows Mobile. Gartner’s just released smartphone market share standings tell the tale:
Nokia by far is the smartphone leader worldwide. Research in Motion is a distant second. If Microsoft wants to get its mobile productivity apps set up for global acceptance it has to go through Nokia. A Windows Mobile-Office bundle just won’t work abroad.
Indeed, Windows Mobile represented just 9 percent of the worldwide smartphone operating system market in the second quarter. Symbian had 51 percent, down from 57 percent a year ago, according to Gartner.
The software partnership kicks off with Nokia’s enterprise focused Eseries.
July 22nd, 2009
Nortel's carcass is in high demand
Who would have thought Nortel would be more popular in bankruptcy than as a going concern? A lot of companies want Nortel’s assets, which have the potential to raise a ruckus in the tech market.
Emerging signs of Nortel’s popularity:
Avaya plans to pay $475 million for Nortel’s enterprise solutions business. Under a deal announced Monday Avaya entered an agreement to buy Nortel’s enterprise unit, which includes enterprise telephony, unified communications and data networking products. With the move Avaya could be a bigger threat to Cisco.
The Avaya deal comes about a month after Nortel entered an agreement to sell its CDMA and Long Term Evolution (LTE) access business to Nokia Siemens Networks. That deal, worth $650 million, would transfer at least 2,500 Nortel workers to Nokia Siemens. Under the deal, Nokia Siemens entered a “stalking horse” arrangement where Nortel can complete the sale in bankruptcy unless a better deal comes along.
And speaking of better deals. Research in Motion freaked out because it was prevented from making an offer for Nortel’s wireless business, which will officially be auctioned July 24. Nortel is selling its CDMA and Long Term Evolution (LTE) access business.
In a statement, RIM said it was told it qualified as a bidder only if it promised not to bid for other Nortel assets for a year. RIM said its bid would have kept the wireless business in Canada—a condition of the bankruptcy proceedings. RIM said:
Based on its preliminary review, RIM would be prepared to pay in the range of US $1.1 billion, subject to due diligence and the entering into of appropriate ancillary agreements, for the CDMA and Long Term Evolution Access businesses and certain other Nortel assets. RIM believes that such an offer would result in an extremely attractive price for Nortel creditors and value substantially in excess of the stalking horse bid made by Nokia Siemens Networks.
Simply put, Nortel may disappear, but its assets will continue to make noise going forward.
July 14th, 2009
Jobs: Catch the App Store if you can
Apple CEO Steve Jobs had a simple message for all the App Store rivals trying to emulate the iPhone maker’s model: Good luck catching us.
Apple marked the first birthday of its App Store and noted the following about what is becoming a business model moat in the wireless business:
- 1.5 billion apps downloaded;
- 65,000 apps;
- An army of 100,000 iPhone developers.
You can quibble with Apple’s timing—technically the App Store tuned 1 on July 11—but that’s one helluva moat. In a statement, Jobs indirectly noted a laundry list of rivals—Research in Motion, Nokia, Android, Microsoft and Palm primarily—all trying to replicate the App Store. Jobs said:
“With 1.5 billion apps downloaded, it is going to be very hard for others to catch up.”
The App Store is one of the primary reasons that the iPhone has been a hit. Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster on Tuesday said that Apple is likely to deliver better-than-expected iPhone sales for its June quarter. Munster writes:
We believe upside to Mac and iPhone units could help Apple beat Street estimates for the Jun-09 quarter. Our survey of 256 iPhone buyers, along with indications from AT&T leave us confident in our iPhone est of 5 million in the June quarter vs. the Street at about 4 million.
The big picture here is that the App Store has rewritten the rules in the wireless business and Jobs knows it. Apple has first mover advantage and isn’t likely to ease up. As Bernstein analyst Craig Moffett noted Apple has been very disruptive to the wireless industry and the fun is just beginning.
The industry tug of war will revolve around devices and carriers as dumb pipes. Indeed, consumers are increasingly thinking of their smartphone as application delivery devices more than handheld for email and phone calls. The vendors that make apps easy will win. Wireless carriers see the shifts coming and some such as Verizon Wireless are already playing around with an application marketplace, according to GigaOm.
Simply put, carriers have no desire to be a dumb pipe to deliver access. Apple’s march could easily relegate carriers to dumb pipe status. It’s an interesting development that will take years to play out.
For now, Jobs has thrown down the gauntlet to its competition. Catch the App Store—if you can.
July 8th, 2009
Generator Research predicts iPhone will overtake Nokia in 2012
Generator Research, a small firm focused on digital media and the Internet, has released a new report predicting that the Apple iPhone’s current growth trajectory will enable it to catch and surpass Nokia for the top spot in the global smartphone market within three years.
The report sees iPhone growth accelerating due to a combination of the rapid multiplication of apps and the price drop of $99 for the lowest-priced iPhone. Meanwhile, Generator Research also predicts that Nokia will stumble and see its market share cut in half from 40% in 2008 to just 20% in 2013.
Chart credit: Electronista
Quick analysis
This report appears to compare Apple and Nokia in a vacuum. It sees only modest growth for other smartphones in the years ahead. That doesn’t take into account the momentum that both BlackBerry and Palm also have right now. I think we have to expect that as the smartphone market grows steeply over the next several years, it’s going to lift several boats, not just the iPhone.
As the smartphone market grows and consolidates, Nokia is definitely vulnerable, as is Windows Mobile. Google’s Android platform is still a wildcard. It has potential, but also has some serious challenges to overcome.
However, this market is still extremely fluid. Nokia has yet to launch its new Symbian OS. Windows Mobile 7.0 comes out in early 2010. And there’s still the possibility that Android could find the right hardware partner and turn its fortunes around.
If there’s anything that could give the iPhone to leap forward in the global market, it could be partnerships with new mobile carriers. For example, if the iPhone comes to Verizon in the U.S. in late 2010 (as rumored), it could have a very disruptive impact on that market.
July 6th, 2009
Could Nokia and Android be just what each other needs?
I’ve been an outspoken critic of Google Android, doubting Google’s fitness for producing smartphone software and wondering if Android and Windows Mobile will be the two platforms that get squeezed out of the smartphone market. But, a new report that Nokia is a developing an Android smartphone could change the fortunes of the platform. Nokia is disputing the report, but it’s easy to wonder if this pairing could be a partnership that would help both sides fight off fierce new challenges from Apple, BlackBerry, and Palm.
The report, which The Guardian attributes to “industry insiders,” states that Nokia is expected to release an Android-based smartphone at its Nokia World event in September in Stuttgart, Germany.
A Nokia spokesperson disputed the report in an interview with Reuters. “Absolutely no truth to this whatsoever… Everyone knows that Symbian is our preferred platform for advanced mobile devices,” said the Nokia representative.
Nokia bought out Symbian in 2008, but instead of bringing it in-house the Finnish phone maker spun it out into an open platform run by the Symbian Foundation. This move was largely seen as a shot across the bow at Android, the other big open platform.
June 23rd, 2009
A Nokia, Intel partnership makes sense, but they need to focus on smartphones
Intel deperately needs to get into the mobile phone market, which is expected to grow far more rapidly than the PC market over the next decade. Nokia, while still technically the leader in global smartphone market share, badly needs to generate some smartphone buzz to help fight off growing challenges from Apple, BlackBerry, Palm, and Google Android.
On Tuesday, the two companies announced a partnership in which Nokia will use Intel chips in its mobile devices. The collaboration will include both mobile chipsets and mobile broadband connectivity. However, the lack of detail provided by the two companies leaves a lot of unanswered questions about how much of an impact this partnership will have on the nascent smartphone market.
Anand Chandrasekher, head of the Intel’s mobility group, said:
“This Intel and Nokia collaboration unites and focuses many of the brightest computing and communications minds in the world, and will ultimately deliver open and standards-based technologies, which history shows drive rapid innovation, adoption and consumer choice. With the convergence of the Internet and mobility as the team’s only barrier, I can only imagine the innovation that will come out of our unique relationship with Nokia. The possibilities are endless.”
In the conference call for reporters, the two companies repeatedly drove home the idea that they want to create a “new class of devices” that transcends the current smartphones, laptops, and netbooks and uses Linux software (based on Moblin and Maemo) to create on open platform. Both Nokia and Intel refused to speculate on any details about potential devices that could emerge from this partnership.
It’s also unclear whether this partnership will lead to a new line of Intel smartphone chips. Intel already has chips for small devices. The “Moorestown” platform is used for what Intel calls Mobile Internet Devices (MIDs), which are basically handheld computers smaller than a netbook but more powerful than a smartphone. But, despite partnerships with lots of hardware makers to build MIDs, these devices have failed to attract buyers in the marketplace.
Nokia also knows something about failed MIDs. Earlier this year, the company discontinued its MID line of the devices, the Nokia N800/N810 Internet Tablet (below).
Unfortunately, the Intel, Nokia partnership announced today sounds like an attempt to resurrect and reshape the MID. That would be a mistake. The market has already responded and said that it does not want that type of device. Users want smartphones on the go and full-fledged computers with roomy screens when they are sitting down to get work done or immerse in computer-based entertainment.
It would make a lot more sense for Nokia and Intel to get laser-focused on building powerful next-generation smartphones. With the N97, Nokia already has one of the most capable smartphones on the planet. Putting Intel chips inside a device like that one would send a message to the market that they’ve got an uber-powerful device that can handle PC-like tasks and lots of multimedia, wrapped in the popular form factor of a smartphone.
June 8th, 2009
Forget the iPhone: Palm targets RIM, business customers with Pre
Few business customers look to Apple’s iPhone as the solution for the enterprise. Perhaps it’s the device’s popularity with teenagers. Perhaps it’s the device’s pedigree as a media player. Perhaps it’s because RIM exerts such power over the business community with its BlackBerry lineup, and the iPhone seems like it has more flash than substance.
Whatever the reason, the new Palm Pre smartphone (available now on Sprint) is seen as the strongest challenger yet to the iPhone crown. But make no mistake: it’s not the iPhone Palm executives want to dethrone.
It’s the BlackBerry.
In a New York Times report posted this past Friday — on the eve of the Pre’s successful launch — the real objective behind Palm’s launch of its smartphone escaped the lips of company executives.
June 4th, 2009
Juniper, Nokia Siemens form joint venture to target telecom carriers
Juniper and Nokia Siemens Networks said Thursday that they are forming a joint venture to target telecom carriers.
The specifics (statement):
- The joint venture will be headquartered in the Netherlands;
- Juniper and Nokia Siemens will combine carrier Ethernet products into one portfolio;
- That portfolio includes: Juniper Networks MX Series Ethernet Services Routers, Nokia Siemens Networks A-series Carrier Ethernet Switches as well as Nokia Siemens’ network management system;
- And both companies will sell the lineup from the joint venture, which competes with the likes of Cisco and Alcatel Lucent.
The deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter. The joint venture is expected to have more than 200 telecom customers.
May 27th, 2009
Smartphone operating systems: The market share, usage disconnect
Smartphone Web usage and market share may be two statistics that don’t mesh very well, according to a report by AdMob, which serves mobile ads.
In a report released Wednesday, AdMob compared its market share stats vs. Gartner’s. The findings indicate a few things:
- AdMob’s stats are iPhone heavy;
- Mobile usage, which is what AdMob tracks doesn’t match market share;
- Symbian, RIM and Windows Mobile have market share, but lag in mobile Web usage.
Here’s the breakdown:
May 26th, 2009
Nokia Ovi Store launches (slowly) with few business apps and no Facebook
Nokia’s Ovi Store, the handset maker’s answer to Apple’s App Store and other application outlets from the likes of Android and Research in Motion, launched Tuesday. Good luck actually getting to Nokia’s store though.
This alleged launch apparently happened—very slowly. There’s a Nokia press release and a blog post and numerous reports about the Ovi Store. However, it’s a slow go for a lot of folks including me.
Once I slogged through the slow performance I was a bit underwhelmed by the business apps. The BlackBerry and iPhone stores both have more.
Here’s the business selection for the Ovi Store.
May 20th, 2009
Mobile OS wars: Apple, RIM surge; Symbian still dominant
Gartner’s first quarter smartphone market share statistics show that Nokia’s Symbian remains the dominant mobile operating system, but is losing share to operating systems from Research in Motion and Apple.
To wit (see Gartner statement):
- Symbian’s first quarter smartphone OS share was 49.3 percent, down from 56.9 percent a year ago. But that’s up from the fourth quarter.
- RIM’s BlackBerry OS surged to 19.9 percent, up from 13.3 percent a year ago.
- And Apple’s iPhone OS was 10.8 percent of the market, up from 5.3 percent a year ago.
Gartner’s smartphone unit data echoes the stats from IDC a few weeks ago. Gartner said mobile phone sales were 269.1 million units in the first quarter, down 9.4 percent from a year ago. Smartphone sales were 36.4 million units, up 12.7 percent a year ago.
Here’s a look at the dumb phone standings:
May 19th, 2009
Wither the 'smartphone': Reorganizing the mobile market when all devices get smart
Smartphones as a term is dying a quick death as all phones become smarter with Internet access, email and other capabilities. Meanwhile, the mobile market will be carved up based on whether devices are open, foster consumption or content creation, and utility and entertainment, according to Forrester Research. Simply put, the organizing principles around the mobile industry are about to get blown apart.
In a research report, Forrester analyst Ian Fogg slices the mobile market. Here’s the Fogg’s bottom line:
Apple’s and Google’s arrival in the mobile market is causing knock-on effects throughout the market and is opening up opportunities. All mobile handsets are becoming smarter and Internet-capable. Yesterday’s smart high-end phone is today’s midrange phone and tomorrow’s entry-level phone. The “smartphone” category is no longer useful as all phones become smart. Instead, we propose three new frameworks to segment the smart mobile device market: openness and extensibility; consumption and creation; utility and entertainment. All mobile strategies must adapt now: Consumer electronics makers must decide on their response to widely available smarter phones and the mobile Internet; handset makers must leverage software to play the mobile Internet game and differentiate long term; media, finance, retail, and other Internet companies’ strategies must exploit mobile opportunities now or lose ground to faster rivals. But the mobile market will remain fragmented with no single platform — no Windows PC equivalent — anytime soon on mobile devices.
That reality is what makes the mobile industry so much fun—it’s a free for all.
The key points:
April 30th, 2009
IDC: Global mobile phone shipments tank in first quarter; Smartphones up
Worldwide mobile phone shipments fell 15.8 percent in the first quarter to 244.8 million units. Smartphone shipments, however, were up 4 percent as carriers upped subsidies on that type of device, according to IDC.
IDC said in a statement that the mobile phone shipment decline was “especially sharp due to weak end-user demand, currency volatility, and lack of credit for merchants as consumers and the supply chain adapt to the recession.”
Given that state, carriers are more likely to push smartphones so they can at least garner revenue via data services. IDC noted that some big carriers have shifted about half of their handset lineup to smartphones. Indeed, both AT&T and Verizon. talked up data revenue and smartphones on their most recent quarterly results.
Here’s a look at the global standings:
The big takeaways:
- Nokia slipped below 100 million units for the first time in two years;
- Motorola market share has dropped from 9.4 percent to 6 percent in a year;
- LG is gaining as is Samsung.
April 24th, 2009
Tech execs new hobby: Calling IT spending bottoms
Technology executives have a new hobby: Calling IT spending bottoms. However, some refuse to play along.
Intel kicked off the bottom calling fiesta last week. Intel CEO Paul Otellini said “we believe PC sales bottomed out during the first quarter and that the industry is returning to normal seasonal patterns.”
And then on Thursday EMC joined the parade. EMC CEO Joe Tucci said on the company’s earnings conference call:
As I look to the balance of 2009 I do believe we are at or very near the bottom from an IT spending point of view. I continue to believe that the second half of the year will show an improvement with Q4 holding the most promise but, I do believe that Q2 will continue to be sluggish. A little more predictable but sluggish.
Why sluggish? I believe that customers will continue with their just enough, just in time IT spending patterns. They too are looking for signs of improvement and while there is some light at the end of the tunnel they will likely wait a bit and continue to be cautious.
Is it just me or is everyone trying to call the turn? The reality: None of these guys can predict out more than a few months. There appears to be some thaw in spending but no one knows how long it will stick.
Enter the anti-bottom callers. Microsoft CFO Chris Liddell said the company sees a slow and gradual recovery, but weak spending could persist through 2009. Simply put, it’s too soon to call a bottom, said Liddell.
Indeed, it’s so early that Microsoft isn’t providing earnings or revenue guidance even though its business is one of the more predictable operations around.
AMD CEO Dirk Meyer summed up the view of the anti-bottom callers:
You know, I’ve heard some say that we’ve hit bottom. I don’t know how anybody could say that we’ve hit bottom given the continued uncertainty that we have in the macroeconomic climate. And as a result of that I would say we’re simply being cautious in our outlook.
AMD’s outlook for the second quarter is somewhere between up 10 percent and down 10 percent. In other words AMD’s guess on PC demand is as good as anyone’s. Meyer gets the quote of the week nod:
You can see – you can drive trucks through some of those numbers, whether it’s a positive 10 or a minus 10. So it’s hard to figure out in a normal pattern what’s with average, what happens in second quarter. And then you add into it the current economic environment and it really becomes a little bit foggy.
Maybe the bottom is in. Maybe it’s not. In any case, Meyer probably has the most accurate take for now.
Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and Editorial Director of ZDNet sister site TechRepublic. See his full profile and disclosure of his industry affiliations.
For daily updates, follow Larry on Twitter.
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Here to help you with your Document Management Needs
- Doc is an enigma. Born to a Russian ballerina and a German electrical engineer, he grew up in various locations in the United States. He’s seen the insides of more brands, versions, and generations of printer and printer-related hardware than almost anyone.
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