December 1st, 2008
Does Cyber Monday matter this year?
The pressure’s on for Cyber Monday, the online cousin of retail’s Black Friday. Retailers and e-tailers had been forecasting doom and gloom for the holiday season but online sales on Black Friday actually were up 1 percent over last year, according to comscore. Wrap Thanksgiving Day shopping into the mix - a day when most retailers are closed - and online sales were up 2 percent over last year. PayPal reported that sales were up 26 percent over the previous year, according to Reuters.
Now, the spotlight shifts to today - Cyber Monday, the kickoff to the online shopping season. For the past several years, Cyber Monday sales have been an indicator of the growth in online sales for the full season. Last year, sales on Cyber Monday were up 21 percent over the previous year, while full season sales grew 19 percent. The year before, Cyber Monday sales and full-season sales both grew 26 percent over the previous year.
But this year is different. All bets are off. From layoffs and bank collapses to the deterioration of the housing market and the bailout of Wall Street, there’s no longer a sure thing to count on. And that includes bellweathers such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday as ways of forecasting the full holiday season. Despite gains on Black Friday, sales made on the November days leading up to Thanksgiving were down 4 percent. In a statement, comscore chairman Gian Fulgoni said:
With so much volatility right now in the variables that influence consumer spending, predicting where this online holiday season will end up has been far more challenging that in previous years. That said, Cyber Monday may well prove to be an important indicator of whether the decline in spending that we’ve seen during the first few weeks of the online holiday season will continue for the balance of the year.
Cyber Monday, of course, gained notoriety when online sales spiked significantly on the first Monday after the long Thanksgiving holiday weekend, also the first Monday back to work and the better computers and faster Web connections were available. Comscore says about half of all e-commerce spending occurs over a work computer. Even that number is bound to shift eventually, as Web connections at home - now comparable to those in an office - reach more users. Still, retailers are gearing up - with free shipping expected to be widespread this year and more offering financing, rebates and one-day discounts.
I had already planned on making a couple of online purchases this year. Since there was no real savings for me on Black Friday, I didn’t rush out to hit the mall or shop online. Now, I think I’ll make those purchases today - just so I can say I contributed to keeping the hope alive for a quick economic recovery alive. How about you?
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Sam Diaz is a senior editor at ZDNet. See his full profile and disclosure of his industry affiliations.
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