January 5th, 2009
2009: The year in preview
Welcome to 2009 and chances are we’ll close the year with more than a few big surprises. Nevertheless, we amateur soothsayers give it a go every year. Without further ado, here are the top 5 items I think 2009 will bring us.
5. Enterprise technology customers will revolt.
Couple a terrible economy with software business models that are built on milking existing customers for more revenue and what do you get? Some serious pushback. SAP is already seeing it. Rest assured that customers will increasingly push back on their vendors.
4. Enterprise 2.0 as mass disruptor.
You can spend a million bucks and basically try out every newfangled Webware offering. Some of these experiments will fail miserably. But all you need is a few hits. The race to replace your fat–maintenance cost inflating–apps is on.
3. Microsoft will generate some legitimate enthusiasm for an operating system release.
Let’s face it Vista was a bust and a lot of IT managers are rolling the dice and waiting for Windows 7. When Windows 7 launches sometime in late 2009 there will be a pent-up upgrade cycle waiting for it–unless Microsoft screws it up.
2. Yahoo–whatever remains of it–will be acquired.
Yahoo isn’t a search company. It isn’t a tech company. It’s a media company that aggregates eyeballs better than any Web player on the planet. Yahoo knows content. It knows how to dominate categories. And it has a Web presence that other companies can only dream about. That said, Yahoo–new management or not–may not have a future as an independent media company. My hunch: Yahoo becomes a part of Disney, which could do a lot with Yahoo.
1. The netbook gets a do-over.
I’ve been playing with a netbook for a few months now and there are simply too many compromises. However, there is a need for a device that resides between your laptop and smartphone. The big question is what this pup should look like. AMD is focusing on ultra portable laptop market. Intel acknowledges that netbooks aren’t perfect. Ideally I’d have some kind of origami type thing that would unfold into a laptop. Perhaps, Apple rides in to save the day. Mac Tablet anyone?
Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and Editorial Director of ZDNet sister site TechRepublic. See his full profile and disclosure of his industry affiliations.
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