January 8th, 2009
Welcome to the Consumer Electronics Show. Sales Are Flatlining.
The semi-annual forecast of industry sales for consumer electronics makers just came out. And the projection is that, despite the transition to digital TV and lust for portable electronics of all types, sales are going down this year.
Not by much. Percentage-wise, 65 hundredths of a percent. As the 2009 International Consumer Electronics Show opens its doors this morning in Las Vegas, the Consumer Electronics Association that puts it on is projecting total factory sales in the year ahead of $171.0 billion.
That compares to $172.1 billion in its estimate for the year just ended (2008) for which sales are not finalized yet.
But that at least was a 5.4 percent gain over the $163.2 billion in factory sales in 2007.
Which just goes to show consumer electronics are subject to recession. The last time sales went down? 2001, compared to 2000.
Before that, 1991, compared to 1990.
Still there are a few categories that are escaping the downturn. Most notable: Video gaming. You gotta blast something, in a recession. And the systems are becoming the living room extension of social networks, the CEA contends, pulling in movies, music and distant competitors. Its sales are projected at $21.8 billion in 2009, compared to $19.7 billion in 2008 and $16.9 billion in 2007.
Other gainers (see below) are incidentals: Video components, accessories and blank media. The growth in components is from next gen DVD players and set-top boxes. These one-time “cocooning” expenses are taking the place of vacations, in the stay-at-home economy, the CEA believes.
There were some good ideas to come out of the year, even as the economy went in the tank. Watch NY Times gadget man David Pogue on that, here.
Tom Steinert-Threlkeld is editor-in-chief of Securities Industry News, as well as a long-time media, technology and business journalist. See his full profile and disclosure of his industry affiliations.
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