August 8th, 2008
Banking On The Internet Breaking
So, on the day the Olympics open, the head of Tellabs – which helps telecommunications carriers deliver high-quality voice, video and data services around the world — is talking about a looming bandwidth crisis for the Internet, in today’s Chicago Sun-Times. The main cause for the concern: Video, like we’re seeing over the next two weeks from the Olympics and is watched around the world every day, from YouTube.
The study found this particular set of pros divided on whether the rapid rise in consumption of online video will “break” the Internet.
Here are some bullet points from that survey:
• 51 percent are concerned that increasing bandwidth demands will “break” the Internet;
• 43 percent believe that up to 30 percent of overall Internet traffic is video today, and 40 percent expect that to increase to up to 75 percent in five years;
• 50 percent say that video puts the biggest bandwidth demand on mobile networks today and 81 percent say that will still be true in five years.
Then, Pullen circles back to YouTube with this observation: The video-sharing site last year gobbled up more bandwidth than the entire Internet did in 2000.
Is the Internet going to break?
Don’t know. Very much doubt it. Ethernet inventor Robert Metcalfe of course predicted at the end of 1995 the Internet would collapse — in 1996. Didn’t happen. And, in fact, telecom companies overinvested in traffic-carrying pipes, contributing to the dotcom bust which greeted the new century. Companies around the globe this time will keep investing in infrastructure, says here. There’s growth and where there’s growth, capacity usually doesn’t follow. It likes to lead.
“I don’t think it’s going to break,” IDC’s Lee Doyle told Between The Lines this afternoon. Will 100 million people be able to watch streaming video from the Olympics at the same time, on today’s Internet? “Probably not,” though.
Which means it will take hundreds of millions of dollars of new investment in Internet infrastructure, he says, to keep ahead of the need.
All of which leads to one certain effect: Talking about the threat of a breakdown and the demands video will place on the network of networks in all likelihood will help … Tellabs’ business.
Tom Steinert-Threlkeld is editor-in-chief of Securities Industry News, as well as a long-time media, technology and business journalist. See his full profile and disclosure of his industry affiliations.
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