Between the Lines

Windows is a glacier and glaciers don't melt overnight

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Boy this Windows collapsing under its own weight argument has some legs. A few points about this Gartner presentation two days ago, which has raised quite a ruckus on Techmeme. The analysts argued Wednesday morning that Windows was collapsing under its own weight because the code is too bulky. Microsoft has to support all of these legacy applications. The fix was to become more modular, which is something Microsoft has already acknowledged. Vista has its problems, but as Mary Jo Foley adds: Reports of Windows demise are greatly exaggerated. A few key points:

Michael Arrington tells us that Microsoft must complete the Yahoo deal to remain relevant as Windows collapses. Let's ponder this: Ok, I'm done. The argument makes no sense to me. So business hasn't been so hot for Vista. Is the fix really to buy Yahoo? Does Yahoo make Microsoft relevant? Arrington notes that Microsoft is nothing without its consumer and business desktop software profits. That's like saying Boeing is nothing without its airplane manufacturing business. Yahoo would keep Microsoft relevant in the medium term, Arrington argues. What does Yahoo have to do with Windows--a completely separate not to mention infinitely more profitable business? Microsoft's potential purchase of Yahoo is about distributing advertising and search via the software giant's platform. Force feed Microsoft's search and AdCenter (or any platform) via Yahoo's properties and poof you have market share.
Windows won't collapse overnight. Folks have been saying Windows is toast for 10 years at least. The browser is the OS is the common refrain. If you say so. The reality is that this alleged collapse will take years, perhaps decades. I made this point in my initial post, but somehow collapsing under its own weight turned into collapsing tomorrow. Windows is a glacier and glaciers don't melt in a day.
The Vista initial corporate uptake--or lack of it--may not all that meaningful. I had a conversation yesterday with an IT exec at a massive company--the most stable household name you can think of. Guess what this company is doing? Upgrading to XP. Yes, folks upgrading. The company has this thing for maintaining one OS instance for its hundreds of thousands employees. The time has come to move from Windows 2000 to XP. Vista? Puhleeze. But guess what? What Windows version this company uses is irrelevant--it's still paying its licensing fees.
Gartner is often wrong. Another theme that's prevalent in the talkbacks to my previous post is that Gartner can be a bit off with its predictions. The prediction game is fraught with risk. Remember Apple? It was toast just a few years ago. That prediction is just comical now. Windows 13 years ago was going to fall to Netscape and yet we're still bickering about Microsoft's OS.

posted by Larry Dignan
April 11, 2008 @ 9:53 am

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Between the Lines

Windows is a glacier and glaciers don't melt overnight

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