October 8th, 2007
Carm from Sandisk ups ante; will shave her head too if Microsoft's Zune makes it to #2
Last week, in an open letter to Microsoft President Robbie Bach, I offered to shave my head if, after the holiday 2007 market share data is tallied, Microsoft’s share of the portable digital media player market puts its Zune-branded players in 2nd place ahead of the current 2nd place holder SanDisk. A recent Bloomberg report quotes Bach as pledging that Microsoft will be in the #2 spot by the time the holidays are over.
For the challenge to be official, Bach must accept by close of business on Oct 31 (he hasn’t yet) and he must agree to shave his head if Microsoft doesn’t make it to #2 (there are a few other reasonable conditions like, the challenge is void if Microsoft acquires SanDisk or Microsoft changes its announced lineup for the holidays). According to the NPD Group, Microsoft is currently ranked #4 with 3 percent of the market, Creative is 3rd with 4 percent, and SanDisk is in 2nd with 10 percent. JupiterResearch analyst Michael Gartneberg agreed that Microsoft has a good shot at #2 if it is willing to “spend time on marketing and evangelizing.”
When pigs fly.
Unless Gartnerberg and Bach have data that’s substantially different from that of the NPD Group (the challenge and the Bloomberg story are based on NPD’s data), the math and market segmentation pretty much prove that this is an unachievable goal regardless of how much money, time or other resources Microsoft spends on marketing and evangelizing. The main reason, as I pointed out in this additional analysis, is that SanDisk has earned its way to the #2 spot based almost exclusively on sales of portable digital media players (PDMPs) that target buyers spending less than $150. In fact, more that 70 perecent of all of SanDisk’s sales are of offerings that cost less than $100. In comparison, Microsoft’s least expensive Zune heading into this holiday season is $149. In other words, Microsoft basically has nothing to offer the type of “value buyer” that put SanDisk in 2nd place to begin with.
Had Microsoft announced a sub-$100 PDMP as a part of the rollout for its holiday Zunes, I might not be so confident. Heck, in its $79 Shuffle, even Apple realizes the importance of going after value buyers. But it hasn’t and so long as that’s the case, overtaking SanDisk in the #2 spot is going to be an impossible task. So impossible that not only have I offered to shave my head, but now, SanDisk spokeperson Carmella “Carm” Lyman says she’ll shave her head too.
Via e-mail this weekend, Lyman wrote:
I, too, am so confident about SanDisk’s Sansa product line up for the holidays that I’ll put my head of hair on the line, too…..If we lose our #2 stake you can shave my head as well. You and I would be taking to the shears together. That’s how confident I am about SanDisk and the great products we have this holiday season.
Wow. My sacrifice would be paltry in comparison to Carm’s. Check out this video interview I did with her at the last CES show and you can see how long her hair is (my hair is only about 1.5 inches long (at its longest). From the looks of the video (I haven’t seen her since CES), it looks like she has about a foot of hair.
Now the only question is whether Microsoft’s Robbie Bach is willing to join in this fun challenge or not.
