September 7th, 2008
Looking forward to 2018, let's hear your predictions
Google is now officially 10 years old, an impressive notion considering their rapid dominance over any and all things that get in their way. Even Microsoft is shaking in their boots, 10 years ago people would have laughed that off as mpossible. The fact that Google has risen so fast should be enough to make Google themselves nervous about the future — let’s see what we can come up with as far as predictions go (I’ll post here, you post in the comments).
Browser Landscape
Google’s recent foray into the internet browser space will unsettle Internet Explorer and Firefox. Google will creep up to a modest 10% market share, but remain relatively steady there. The reason it will stay at 10% is because Firefox will incorporate some of the features Google has included in their browser, making “switching” unnecessary. Once that happens, they will continue to dominate. Internet explorer will start building Internet Explorer from the ground up sometime in 2010. Being too stubborn to adopt any of the features Google has proposed, their position in the market will continue to weaken.
In 2018, Internet Explorer will be non-existent, instead, it will have been renamed during one of their rebuilds. In any case, it will have 5 to 10% market share. Due to their forward thinking nature, unified base of users, and knack for getting lots of current and future users behind them during major releases, Firefox will be equivalent to today’s Internet Explorer with 70 to 80% market share. Google Chrome (or at least a browser that’s based on Chromium) will have a comparable share to Internet Explorer at 5 to 10%.
The Enterprise
Google will continue to try getting themselves into the enterprise, but it won’t be until 2015 that they begin to make an impact. As Microsoft continues to lose on the search front, and as they are losing market share in the browser wars, they will have no choice but to focus most of their efforts on the Enterprise — something they are already very strong in. Unfortunately for Microsoft, the continuing decline in search, browsers, and even operating system (to Apple), will cause their enterprise clients to get nervous and start looking for alternatives. In this case, they will look towards either Google or Apple for their enterprise needs.
Google’s stubborn attitude towards real customer service will come back to haunt them though. As Google begins pushing on the Enterprise front, the demand for real customer service will be off the charts. Google will find themselves competing with Apple over the enterprise, and Apple will win because of the level of support that they offer clients.
So, in 2018, seeds of doubt over Microsoft will have the enterprise looking for alternatives. Google’s customer service vs. Apple’s will be one of the deciding factors that cause users to move away from Microsoft towards Apple.
Mobile Computing
The lines between phones and computers will be completely blurred by 2018 — every device available will be a powerful computer which happens to have a phone feature. It’s already started happening — the iPhone is a great example of what we can expect. Phones, going forward, will have to be a computer or they will become extinct. Todays mobile phones will be the “bag phone” of 2018.
Google will be a major player in the mobile operating system space — Android will have a proven track record, and will be on almost every phone by 2018. Thanks to Google putting pressure on carriers, not only will we have a powerful computer in our pockets, we will also have the Internet anywhere for free, or extremely cheap.
Advertising
When people think advertising, they will automatically think Google. You might think that has already happened, but not really. Google hasn’t dominated every form of advertising yet, including local advertising, TV ads, radio ads, etc. This is an area that Google will continue to shine, and others will continue to have difficulty keeping up to. In many ways, Google’s advertising business may be a death trap for anyone who tries competing. Microsoft will be a classic example, and the first of many that fall into the trap.
Now it’s your turn — make your predictions in the comments!
Garett Rogers is employed as a programmer for iQmetrix, which specializes in retail management software for the wireless industry.
See his full profile and disclosure of his industry affiliations.
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