May 5th, 2009
NEXT09: domination = stagnation: now the crumbling empires
NEXT09 is one of Europe’s most important conferences. It brings together some of the edgiest thinkers from around the world, people who challenge accepted norms and put some of the big issues into sharp relief. Today, Umair Haque and Andrew Keen provided conflicting yet paradoxically complementary views of what the digital age means for some of our largest businesses and institutions.
Haque deconstructs the recent implosion of capital markets in ways that will be uncomfortable to free market economists, calling upon business to think about ‘behavioral innovation.’ Today he used the example of Microsoft as a company that has stagnated over 20 years in the pursuit of market domination. That may sound appalling to those in Redmond but then my Irregular colleagues say much the same about all of MISO (Microsoft, IBM, SAP and Oracle.) As I pondered Haque’s words, Oracle’s 12i product announcement came to mind. The announcement has yet to hit Oracle’s press room but it’s tepid to say the least. Is this apparent shot at SAP’s Enhancement Packs the best Oracle can offer? Haque may not have the entertainment cache that today’s conference audiences demand but his words will resonate loudly with those who demand more bang per buck for enterprise software.
Contrast Haque’s words with those of Andrew Keen who sees the destruction of institutions as not only happening but inevitable in the digital age through which we’re currently living. Keen’s perspective reminds us that all empires fall - sooner or later. Is that happening with MISO? I don’t know anyone who would bet against any of these companies yet Salesforce.com provides a breath of fresh air when talking about the end of maintenance.
The problem with not betting against MISO is that it represents a subtle acceptance of the status quo where mega vendors rule, where ‘tiny’ is ignored and open source is dismissed because it can’t command the huge numbers. My Irregular colleagues may disagree but I see this as dangerously myopic thinking.
We may not yet see the next breakthrough innovation vendor quite yet but like my friend and colleague Vinnie Mirchandani, I believe it will be the software equivalent of SouthWest Airlines. That’s where worlds collide and where Haque and Keen may yet find they share much more in common than they might yet recognize.
Dennis Howlett has been providing comment and analysis on enterprise software since 1991. See his full profile and disclosure of his industry affiliations.
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