May 8th, 2008
Data Portability: Social Infrastructure still very much wanting
In a penetrating analysis of the Facebook developers forum, 20bits shows that the participation of programmers in the discussion about the Facebook platform is rapidly dwindling, which suggests the platform itself is incompatible with the needs of the market. The fewer programmers writing for the Facebook platform, the less relevant that platform will be. There’s a simple reason for this: Facebook and the other walled garden approaches, even when it is personal walled gardens hosted by a company like Ning, contribute to the fragmentation of personal experience.
What this market needs is a true mash-up platform that engages the many parts of people’s lives selectively, through the user’s decision-making (which can be helped along by editorial participation), rather than trying to corral different parts of those lives into defined “communities.” Community isn’t only a place, it is also a set of relationships, many of which are different than the one or two relationship factors that is the putative “reason” for a community. And those relationships are not the same for everyone in any community, but must be mixed and matched within and across different communities.
Social networking to date has focused on very small problems, and has fragmented online user experience into a mirrored madhouse as a result. In the case of Facebook, which has done damage to itself with the ham-handed introduction of Beacon, its monetization strategy for engaging brands, the essential problem remains that the “public” person presented by members of the site is not the real person behind the site, and for many users, they are simply uncomfortable with treating their lives as essentially an open book that can be passed around among developers that happen to offer Facebook apps.
Data portability, a current hot issue in the industry, is a misnomer: What we’re talking about is how to make it easy to flip through user’s lives by standardizing the expression of personal information to a public setting—almost always a fledgling market—rather than contemplating how people really share information about themselves. People are selective and attentive to how their data is used. Everyone knows they won’t tell a story they wish to keep closely held to the local gossip, but for the social networker today the only way to tell a story is to publish it to the network.
Some will probably say I am over-generalizing. But the plain fact of the matter is that, wherever you go today on the social network, the first thing that happens is someone asks you for your personal data so that it can be loaded into their database and used to “personalize” your experience on their site. The Data Portability standards are simply ways to expedite that process.
We need computers to serve people in all their contradictions, secrets and predilections, as well as simply as a system for sorting them into common bins that can be addressed by mass marketers.
May 5th, 2008
Two product quickies: Mophie Juice Pack good; Simple Tech stranded
I’ve been using the Mophie Juice Pack, an external battery that slips onto the Apple iPhone, for the past week and recommend it highly. The battery is about half the weight of the phone itself and fits neatly and securely onto the iPhone to provide a full day’s charge for almost any usage scenario.
The $99.95 Juice Pack’s power management is what stands out for me. The battery drains first (you can track the charge by pressing a button on the back that shows a remaining power indicator), keeping a charge on the phone until the external battery is no longer needed. So, when you’ve exhausted the battery, just pull it off and put it in your bag. The iPhone remains charged and ready for another few hours heavy duty.
A couple downsides. While the power passes through, the Juice Pack doesn’t seem to pass through synching data. I had to connect my iPhone separately to synch calendars and video. The other problem is the non-slip coating on the black exterior of the battery: it wears off. After just a couple days in my pocket, the corners and edges of the Juice Pack were worn looking. I suspect the anti-slip coating peels off completely.
These minor shortcomings aside, the Juice Pack a must-have for Read the rest of this entry »
May 5th, 2008
Which stock to buy today: YHOO, MSFT or GOOG?
The Microsoft-Yahoo deal implosion was a near certainty when the talks began. Two cultures as convinced that they are superior to one another can never coexist, so forget blaming anyone for what was inevitable. At least it didn’t take two years and billions of dollars in real losses, as compared to the short-term deflation of Yahoo share values after the negotiation ended.
The question today, though, is what company should you buy in light of this “change of fortune” for Microsoft, for Yahoo and, for Google, which could benefit from a Yahoo ad deal in coming weeks or months?
All three are profitable. All three had better Q1 results year-over-year than 95% or more of publicly traded companies. In Yahoo’s case, the company made almost four times the profit it did a year ago, while Google’s net income increased by 30 percent and Microsoft’s fell by 11 percent. Each company is at a different point in its management of resources. We can clearly see that Yahoo cost-cutting has yielded positive results. Google’s been slowing hiring a bit lately, which will increase margins in future quarters as it continues to enjoy ad revenue growth based on its dominant position. And Microsoft? Well, they have a great mountain of cash they will eventually use to buy a line of revenue.
But if you look at their trailing and forward Price-to-Earnings ratios, we can see that the great risk remains with Yahoo:
Trailing P/E (8:10 AM Pacific, 5/52008) Forward P/E (source Capital IQ)
Google 41.76 24.01
Microsoft 17.36 13.83
Yahoo 31.65 42.79
Yahoo has to grow revenue to break out of its current situation, whereas both Google and Microsoft merely have to continue on their current paths to remain attractive to investors. However, both Google and Microsoft have grown used to Read the rest of this entry »
April 20th, 2008
How this blog saved my life and saved me $100,000
A few months back, I told you about how my neck had gone bad, really bad. At that time, I was in the middle of a six-month dive into pain, alleviated only by gobbling unwholesome quantities of Percoset. Three weeks ago last Friday, I had an amazing surgery that relieved my pain and gave me a neck that feels 20 years younger. And it was all because of this blog.
The experience has proven for me that there is a pressing need for a new economics in medical care, especially with regard to the technology we have access to as health care customers (as compared to being “patients”). Patients have patience, waiting for a prescription from their doctor to fix their ills. Customers can do research, issue a call for proposals so to speak, and make decisions that free them from the confines of their doctors’ ability to earn fees for using certain products.
In many ways, the medical technology market today is at a stage similar to the computing technology in the late 1980s, when IT departments handled all buying decisions and people were discouraged from bringing anything into the enterprise environment that had not been approved by IT. Today, most people are their own CTO, making their decisions about what kind of computer, wireless handset and network to use, which the enterprise accomodates.
Here’s what happened. After I posted about the messed up economics in healthcare, I received email from Tom Rawles at Spinal Kinetics, a developer of spinal disc replacement devices. He said the company was in early trials of its M6 Artificial Disc and that, if I qualified for the trial, they’d be happy to have me.
I’d already been turned down for a disc replacement surgery by my insurer and, despite the fact I have an excellent spine surgeon in the Northwest he did not know of any trials for what I needed, a “multi-level replacement,” i.e., I needed more than one disc replaced. In comments on that posting, many of you agreed with me that the insurer was the main culprit.
But I’ve come to understand that it is also a matter of the sales and marketing channel for medical devices being very narrowly focused on the relationship between the doctor and device manufacturers. In many cases, a doctor can make more money by recommending one device over another. Because of that close link between doctor and manufacturer, Read the rest of this entry »
March 17th, 2008
Jump Point: Data-control, day-parting and success in any age
Tom Hayes has written a new book, Jump Point, that will get you thinking. Jump Point combines the freeconomics ideas recently covered by Wired’s Chris Anderson with a globe-spanning perspective on competitiveness, but, most importantly, suggests that the impact of technology is a trailing phenomenon. In other words, when it comes to the impact of the Internet, we haven’t seen anything yet.
What I like about Hayes’ perspective is his belief that we haven’t seen the real impact of the Internet, which he predicts will come with the three-billionth user sometime in early 2011, and that the coming changes are a mixed blessing. Nevertheless, it will create an environment in which new rules and new businesses will thrive. It is an opportunity. Once that critical mass of users comes online—many solely through mobile handsets—function-based innovation, such as business that grows around a single feature, such as search, will give way to systems-based innovation that will literally wipe the slate clean.
The book progresses through much familiar and standard territory necessary for understanding the magnitude of the changes afoot in the economy today and the near future. I think it is impossible to read a business book today without walking through the concepts of network value, power laws, Dunbar numbers, and the power of personal preference. Hayes does an admirable job of reducing this mandatory lesson to its essentials.
Ultimately, Hayes predicts five major discontinuities that will shape the future economy:
* Attention economics changes the give-and-take we are familiar with in media and transactions;
* Our relationship with time will change to a 24-hour-a-day awareness of the perpetual now;
* Market logistics change from fixed-place retailing to person-based communication;
* Cultures collide, perhaps violently;
* Trust will become the definition of value.
Hayes argues that “antimarketing” will characterize the relationship between buyer and seller, that anticipating when someone will see an offer is the defining skill of the post-jump point marketer. Failure to target offers in a timely manner will be seen as offensive by many consumers. But he makes a mistake, I think, in his focus on attention, arguing that, because attention is scarce, we will trade it for services, Read the rest of this entry »
March 10th, 2008
Creeping totalitarianism: The NSA, personal data and you
Here’s a simple rule for preventing totalitarian rule in any nation: Don’t build the systems for monitoring people’s daily lives closely in the first place, and you will not be at risk of totalitarian rulers using those systems to overwhelm individual choice. The Wall Street Journal today has a long piece on the various ways that the National Security Agency has expanded its ability to monitor individuals within the United States without a warrant. It’s a must-read, whether you think we need this kind of police agency or not.
Originally set up by President Truman to facilitate signals intelligence (wiretapping, radio monitoring and so forth) conducted against foreign governments, the NSA today can gain access to your personal communications without any need to ask permission, including:
Email, such as the to- and from-addresses, subject line content and time sent;
Web sites visited and the content of your searches;
Wireless calling, from your location and that of the person receiving the call to the length and account numbers;
Wired phone calling, including account numbers and length of call (there have been rumors for years that the first minute of calls are monitored for keywords, but this is not confirmed, because, as a national security matter, citizens aren’t supposed to know);
Financial transactions, such as your credit card use, wire transfers and deposits and withdrawals on your checking and savings accounts,
as well as the content of any transaction recorded by a computer that the NSA deems necessary for its pattern recognition analyses.
The NSA has always insisted it works scrupulously within the limits of the laws governing its behavior, but it has, like all human institutions, had lapses in its judgment. For example, during the year immediately after 9/11, NSA attempted to set up a Total Information Awareness network, which was meant to grab all data about people and their transactions and communication for analysis, but Congress prohibited any further spending on the program over civil liberties concerns. Nevertheless, the program has continued in pieces that, in total, add up to the same level of access to domestic civilian communications, as the Journal article makes clear.
Technologists must be aware of this ever-expanding net Read the rest of this entry »
March 3rd, 2008
Presidential candidates: Take a data integrity and transparency pledge
Whomever you support for president, I hope you’ll consider joining me in asking the candidates for a pledge that they will enforce data integrity policies at least as rigorous as expected of publicly traded companies, and that they’ll open their administration to public scrutiny of most public policy.
After eight years of an presidency that considers itself immune to the simplest email storage requirements, the United States could use some insight into how decisions are made at the White House. More than 1,000 days worth of email are missing from the Bush years, in some cases entire weeks’ worth of mail relating to the leaking of CIA operative Virgina Plame’s identity and the application of torture have disappeared. With Bush Administration officials continuing to drag their feet on implementation of email archiving systems, we are threatened with another four or eight years of government operating in the shadows, because an incoming president could blame the faulty storage systems they found for future omissions.
Granted, the Clinton administration hasn’t thrown open the doors to its archives, but, at least, they maintained a record of intra-administration communication, even at a time when email was barely mature and archival requirements were uncertain. It’s a standard we should expect of every administration, more so now that there are well-known best practices for records-retention available for public companies, investment banks and government agencies.
“I don’t want you reading my personal stuff,” President Bush has told the press when asked about why his administration has failed to comply with records-retention laws during his time in office. Unfortunately, Mr. President, nothing you do at your desk, or in the airplanes, cars and buildings we give you to use as president, is “your personal stuff.” It is the property of the people. As voters, we must demand greater accountability of the next president.
Just as a company needs to be able to review its internal communications to find out why it made mistakes, the U.S. government should be able to benefit from the experience of previous administrations, as well as the scholarly study of records, so that we constantly improve the handling of day-to-day and crisis situations. Democracy demands that we have the ability to review what our leaders have discussed as they decide on our behalf how money will be spent, what policies will be enforced and why and when we go to war.
So, let’s pull together as Americans and demand more of our political leaders. Join me in urging the candidates to commit to store all email and documents created or used by their staffs during their tenure in the White House. Regardless of the winner in the upcoming election, the infrastructure for the people’s participation in, and review of, executive decisions is ready for a president that will honor the people’s right to know what has been done in their name.
Logon to your candidate’s site to urge them to take the data integrity and transparency pledge:
John McCain. Mike Huckabee. Ron Paul. Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton.
February 22nd, 2008
FCC sure we’re headed to Hell, ass first
WASHINGTON (AdAge.com) — ABC is appealing the Federal Communications Commission’s decision to fine the Walt Disney network and 45 of its stations a total of $1,237,500 for airing scenes of a woman’s buttocks on a 2003 episode of “NYPD Blue.”
Five years after the fact, the FCC is fining ABC for showing the backside of a woman in an encounter with her lover’s young son. The visual joke, which is captured in the screen shot to the right, depended on portraying a very normal morning behavior, getting into the shower. Yet, this is what the FCC, which endorses greater and greater consolidation of media, spends fives years on.
The FCC is supposed to be managing the airwaves and cabled media in the public interest, not acting as a nanny to the television viewers of the United States.
The viewer can turn off what they don’t want to watch. But if the FCC lets three or four companies own all the media in the country, we won’t have a choice in the future. After all the progress of the past 60 years, it will be as though the major networks that gave us three viewing choices in 1960 have conspired to give us 500 variations on a single right-conforming puritan viewing choice in 2008.
February 20th, 2008
GenieTown: Local services as local community
In a market where many of the global players have local listings for businesses and service providers, GenieTown is starting at the ground level and building up. The company, which made its public debut today, is a knowledge-sharing community built around person-to-person and small-business services providers in the Bay Area.
Today, GenieTown featured service providers that include a coach to help you run a marathon, an investment adviser and several electrical wiring companies. They can build their reputations with articles, through customer introductions and ratings and/or reviews by previous customers.
With $2 million in funding, GenieTown faces a daunting challenge, as Mike Arrington pointed out earlier today. It doesn’t look easy to beat Google, Yahoo and the Yellow Pages businesses around the country.
The interesting element at GenieTown is a community approach similar to social networks and eBay’s marketplace, which gives local service providers (”genies,” in the company’s language) a platform for building a loyal fan base.
The traditional approach to local services is the paid listing we consult in the Yellow Pages. Google, Yahoo and others have followed that model, turning the transaction opportunity into a pay-for-performance event. So far, then, the big change in local services in the Internet age has been a shift from traditional advertising to CPC advertising.
GenieTown is the foundation for community building that has made local stars of realtors, gardeners, restauranteurs, and others that have a lot of information to offer while providing a unique quality of service that isn’t easy to replicate. Think of the radio talk shows on any weekend in every radio market in the United States, where a local businessperson does an hour or two on their area of expertise and benefits from the exposure through the rest of the week as customers think of their names first.
A local star can afford to give away a lot of ideas if customers are willing to pay the premium necessary to get their personal attention.
Participating “genies” contribute to the community to earn their credibility, similar to function of the eBay reputation system, before they begin to earn any revenue from actual transactions with customers. Winning early genies will be the greatest challenge for the company, which can afford to run a local community for a long while, because site operations are the least expensive investment they can make, but only if every day yields new service providers and, ultimately, potential customers.
Which makes the long-term question of GenieTown’s viability clear: Growing a national service requires many marketing-intensive local launches. A $2 million kitty is not much when you may spend that much for each of the major markets you enter during the first few months of marketing efforts. The opportunity, of course, is to create valuable markets that can be sold to a media conglomerate seeking a local edge.
It’s an interesting business, one that will require more than a little magic to succeed. Since GenieTown is staffed by a “group of Stanford entrepreneurs,” it comes to market with the requisite Silicon Valley magic formula. GenieTown is worth keeping an eye on, as these kinds of bottom-up experiments yield more surprising results than national campaigns for local services.
February 11th, 2008
Retail displays transform transactions and markets
I was invited to a Microsoft forum on advanced retail display technology last week and came away with a strange sense that, although the future is going to look a lot like BladeRunner’s stifling advertising environment, it could also be useful and powerful for the customer, not just the advertiser. We have to think about how to display information in a way that is important to purchase decision-making, not just try to tell people why they should buy, buy, buy!
The standout technology at the event, to my eye, was LevelVision’s “horizontal signage,” which include floor, table/countertop and ceiling displays. Among interesting displays that could be manipulated by waving one’s hand or projected onto a retailer’s window, LevelVision attracted my attention with the potential to add interactivity to many more settings, from the restaurant to the retail countertop to the gym and sidewalk. The company’s patents cover a wide range of hypothetical applications, since the screens can capture information as well as simply display video.
What if, for example, you were able to weigh someone as they were looking at a pair of pants? Or take their temperature by having them place their hand on a tabletop display in the doctor’s waiting room? In either case, you’d be prepared to ask the next round of questions you need to better serve them before an human intervenes. You could take five or 10 minutes out of a trip to the doctor with these screens, if they were placed in the waiting room or, even, in the consultation room for use by patients as they wait for the doc. Fitting clothes with interactive systems that display and capture data would transform the way off-the-shelf clothing was sold—no more sifting through hangars to find a good fit.
LevelVision has tested its floor-level displays in malls and college bookstores, seeing substantial increases in traffic and purchasing where the displays were able to capture a passer-by’s attention or engage shoppers in the store with a particular offer.
Jim Currie, the CEO of LevelVision, told me that he envisions a new kind of medium in these horizontal displays. It starts with showing advertising and offers on the LCD panels at floor- and counter-level, but can grow to encompass all sorts of engagement as the initial novelty of the technology passes (the initial novelty, based on customer responses in tests, is enough to kickstart this medium). At some point, simply showing pictures and ads on the floor don’t Read the rest of this entry »
Mitch Ratcliffe is a veteran journalist, media executive and entrepreneur. See his full profile and disclosure of his industry affiliations.
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