July 23rd, 2007
The desktop OS will still matter, just not which one
There is some discussion today about the future of the operating system. Specifically, David Berlind and Zoli Erdos both raise the question of whether or not any desktop operating system will mater by 2010 when Windows ‘Seven’ ships. It’s been a popular question but even at the speed with which technology moves, 3 years will not spell the death of the desktop operating system. On the contrary, I think that the desktop operating system will evolve to be more web-like.
We all like the ease, ubiquity, cross-platform and maybe even the simplicity of web applications. But feature-for-feature web applications can’t compete with desktop applications as we know them today. Surely the web will evolve, but so will the desktop. The key is the middle ground. I think a lot of us aren’t enamored with heavy operating systems that lock us into a platform and make it painful to perform tasks. But that isn’t a fault with the desktop as a platform - it’s a fault with our current crop of operating systems.
I think everyone would benefit from a genuine blending of the web and the desktop, and I think that’s closer to what we’ll have in 2010 than some of the pundits let on. Rich internet applications play a huge part in this, both browser-based RIAs and desktop-based RIAs because they capture the good parts of each platform. Browser-based RIAs provide a higher quality and more efficient user experience inside the browser. Desktop-based RIAs provide some of the compelling hooks of the desktop (offline, file system access, system tie-ins) but ideally with a cross platform and web-centric development model. That’s one of the reasons I like Adobe AIR so much is because I think their model is well-suited to the evolution of both browser and web. By 2010 desktop operating systems will still matter, but hopefully which operating system you use won’t matter. Bringing the web closer to the desktop world is important but won’t eliminate what makes the desktop OS good.
Ryan Stewart, a Rich Internet Application developer and industry analyst, recently joined Adobe's Platform Team as a Rich Internet Application Evangelist. full profile and disclosure of his industry affiliations.
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