A Developer's View

February 19th, 2009

The message from GSMA Barcelona: fragmentation

Posted by John Carroll @ 3:35 pm

Categories: Mobile, Personal Technology, Telephony

Tags: Phone, Mobile, Palm Inc., Smart Phone, Conference, Telecom & Utilities, Smart Phones, Advertising & Promotion, Consumer Electronics, Personal Technology

Toshiba TG01

The GSMA Mobile World Congress, which took place this week in Barcelona, is the world’s largest telecommunications trade conference. It is rumored that 50,000 attendees descended on this Catalonian city for the event, though that is matched by whispers at hotels and restaurants that attendance figures are considerably lower than past events. I filled out a GSMA survey today which asked, among other things, whether my company was placing limits on trade conference attendance budgets, which to my mind hints that market difficulties are affecting telecommunications companies as much as the rest of the economy.

Even so, it is, quite simply, the largest trade fair I have ever attended. Spread across eight separate exhibition halls, it featured booths promoting companies that covered every possible niche in the telecom tapestry. Attractive models in revealing clothing swam among a sea of mostly men in dark colored suits, which is the oddest thing about the GSMA conference. I have been to a number of trade conferences during my career, and participants are usually attired in stereotypical T-shirts and backpacks. According to a public relations person to whom I spoke, formality is typical of telecommunications conferences, which made this jeans-wearing California guy feel somewhat out of place (next year, I’ll pack my suit collection as carry-on).

Apple was a no-show at this year’s conference, but the long shadow of their technical innovations and market success was well apparent. Every hardware vendor in the mobile device space is making a touch-sensitive mobile phone these days, and the screen layouts of many bear a striking resemblence to the now-iconic iPhone entry screen. Large screens are becoming increasingly the norm, which is good news for those companies hoping to convince mobile users to consume more video media while on-the-go. MOFILM, a mobile short film festival that got massive coverage at the conference on account of attracting famous people to provide keynotes and hand out awards (well, “a” famous person, a.k.a. Kevin Spacey), would certainly benefit if large screens became more the norm. I can’t see mobile media becoming much more than a niche product if screen sizes stay small…unless vendors start including projectors into phones (not impossible, as Texas Instruments displayed some rather nice mini-projectors in their booth), or else provide wires that allow users to plug their phone directly into a TV set (some of the mobile video chips on display can now handle 1080p).

Granted, there are Read the rest of this entry »

February 6th, 2009

Don't give me special treatment

Posted by John Carroll @ 8:01 am

Categories: Economic Policy

Tags: Developer, America, Bailout, American, Globalization, Free Trade, Government, Strategy, Management, Finance

Debates continue in the US Congress over the size and shape of an economic stimulus intended, in true Keynesian fashion, to create demand for products where it is in short supply. The size of the stimulus will be nothing short of awe-inspiring, though the shock-value is somewhat reduced after approving a similar-sized bailout for the banking industry last year.

In contention are “Buy American” rules which would require that much of the money be spent on products made in the United States. To some, this is a bit rich. Most of the money for this bailout will come from overseas sources given that low-saving Americans are hardly in a position to buy the government bonds necessary to finance this bailout-sized deficit. Foreign governments have already warned this would violate WTO trade rules. The Smoot-Hawley tariffs of 1930 whacked more than 10 percentage points off of global demand in short order. Could “Buy American” provisions result in similar levels of demand destruction?

Maybe. But what I find most galling about all this is that America, a country that is supposedly a “champion” of global capitalism, practically sprints away from its principles at the first opportunity.

How soon we forget Read the rest of this entry »

January 30th, 2009

What is American?

Posted by John Carroll @ 1:14 pm

Categories: General

Tags: Massachusetts, H-1B, Productivity, Human Resources, Labor Relations, John Carroll

A recent post by Brian Sommer noted that H-1B visa holders might be in for a rough ride in 2009 as the weakening economy invites calls for special preferences for the accidental citizens of the United States of America (I say “accidental,” as most of us were bestowed our rights as citizens by accident of birth). In fact, Sommer makes note of a demand by Charles Grassley, a Republican senator from Iowa, to Steve Ballmer, CEO of Microsoft, that upcoming layoffs at Microsoft affect H-1B visa holders disproportionately.

It’s peculiar that such calls tend to come from politicians from states which lie the furthest it is possible to get from our nation’s borders. Equally odd is that such statements are typical of today’s crop of politicians from the party of Ronald Reagan, whose pro-trade credentials were rarely in doubt, and as the author of the last big amnesty given to illegal immigrants in this country, would look askance at such anti-business populist nonsense.

It’s also odd that that so many computer professionals respond enthusiastically to such populist blather. Every time anyone writes about the H-1B program or foreign workers, the Talkbacks are littered with posts decrying the foreign workers who take “our” jobs away. That’s odd, because most such professionals wouldn’t even have jobs if globalization hadn’t brought the cost of computers down to levels where practically everyone in the developed world has one. Lower prices make bigger markets for OUR services.

Think about it practically. Imagine if the government of Massachusetts decided to force MIT to accept exclusively residents of the state. What would happen to the quality of science conducted at MIT? It’s not because citizens of Massachusetts are stupid. Rather, it’s because Massachusetts is a drop in the bucket compared to the 6+ billion people who exist on this planet.

You find more gold if you sift a mountain than if you sift the pile of dirt you have in your backyard. The same applies to IT personnel.

Quite frankly, hiring and firing decisions should be based on how valuable a particular individual is to a company.

Anything less is un-American.

December 17th, 2008

Hiatus till January

Posted by John Carroll @ 8:36 am

Categories: General

Tags: Blogging, Corporate Communications, Investment, Financial Accounting, Internet, Marketing, Finance, John Carroll

Not that I think crowds of angry people will descend on my West Hollywood apartment because of this, but I am going to be off until January.  As noted three weeks ago in my last post (I am a very bad blogger), a startup I co-founded recently received an important dose of financing.  As people who have actually been in this situation probably know (and which I am learning), you have a ridiculous number of things you need to do the day after.  Stressful it definitely is, but I wouldn’t change it for the world.

Anyway, Prague was a great place to have a planning meeting.  I put together a two minute video excerpt from about an hour’s worth of footage, which you can see here.  I love Sony Vegas.

November 24th, 2008

Going back to Windows Media Center

Posted by John Carroll @ 9:15 am

Categories: Digital Media, Media Center, Television

Tags: Channel, Windows Media, Media Center PC, Microsoft Windows, Microsoft Windows Media Center, Digital Video Recorder, CableCard, Media Center PCs, DVR, Digital Video

I’d been using Media Center as my primary DVR since shortly after the release of Windows Vista several years ago. At the time, my intention was to learn more about the other TV-oriented technology at Microsoft, which was of particular interest to me as I worked, at the time, in Microsoft’s IPTV division. I also lacked a DVR at home, so Media Center added new capabilities to my television viewing experience that I previously had lacked.

The main drawback, however, is that the computer I was using did not have a “CableCARD” slot. This meant that I could only receive the signals I would receive if I had my cable wire plugged directly into the back of my TV set.

A CableCARD insert would have allowed me to receive more digital cable channels, such as HBO and Showtime. Unfortunately, it is not possible to buy CableCARD add-on hardware for my computer. Systems that have CableCARD slots have to be certified by CableLabs, the standard certification body for Set-Top Boxes used in the cable industry. In other words, if your machine does not have the required interface slots, there is no way to provide them after the fact.

That’s the reason Read the rest of this entry »

November 21st, 2008

SAG follows the path blazed by the UAW

Posted by John Carroll @ 10:16 am

Categories: Digital Media, Television

Tags: Union, UAW, Media, Internet, Advertising & Promotion, Marketing, John Carroll

According to a recent article on Betanews, the Screen Actor’s Guild (SAG) is angling for a fight over union rules as they apply to Internet-only productions. Media created exclusively for distribution over the Internet would have to follow the same union rules as applies to bigger productions, regardless of revenue streams expected from them.

SAG proponents would likely argue that they are trying to bring union protections to a fast-growing segment of media production that currently lacks them. If you accept the premise that SAG protections are important for actors working in the industry (and I question that, to be sure, noting that the overwhelming majority of SAG members aren’t full-time actors), then union-won rights must be defended at all costs.

Union life, for some, IS good…assuming you can get into one in the first place. But, by raising costs on Internet productions, SAG makes major studios (the group most often bound by union rules) less likely to bother with Internet-only productions. This benefits the unions, as the Internet, in my opinion, poses the same kind of threat to traditional film production that it poses to traditional newspapers. By lowering the barrier to entry, it brings in new competitors who, by their very nature, offer content at lower cost than the incumbents.

Unfortunately, this is Read the rest of this entry »

November 14th, 2008

Computers make the case for globalization

Posted by John Carroll @ 8:29 am

Categories: Economic Policy

Tags: Computer, Globalization, Productivity, Strategy, Management, John Carroll, Job, Laptop Computer

America was on a trade skeptic path even before the financial crisis hit. Ross Perot beat the drum against NAFTA during his election bid in 1992, and might have won had he not been a crazy Texas coot who quit the race in a huff because he felt his daughter was being insulted by those rude Bush people (history sometimes gives one a sense that we have dodged invisible bullets). The .com overinvestment in telecommunications, followed by the .com meltdown, made offshoring of higher tech jobs a cost-effective possibility, resulting in expressions of fear and loathing on technology sites across the Internet. Americans busily inflated a housing bubble in the past decade, tightening their finances and engendering a fear of the accelerated pace of change that globalized markets represent.

On Paltalk, I see a lot of soul searching among mourning die-hard Republicans who are trying to figure out how they went from being the party with visions of a “permanent majority” to one that has lost control of both Congress and the Presidency. Paradoxically, people in conservative chat rooms repeatedly declare their allegiance to capitalism and the principles espoused by Ronald Reagan, all the while declaring their opposition to trade agreements, support for tariff barriers, and a deep seated opposition to immigration, legal or otherwise. This is, of course, fairly incongruous, as Reagan was a champion of opening markets through trade agreements, reducing tariff barriers, and presided over the the last big “amnesty” bill for illegal immigrants passed in this country (in 1986). Further, such anti-market principles are likely shared with people on the other side of the political aisle, such as Nancy Pelosi.

If “free market capitalism” was a contestant on American Idol (which might be the only way to get most people to pay real attention to it), it would be loudly booed by the audience, and phones would be overrun by people trying to vote it off. The problem, of course, is that it is often hard for people to understand the benefits. The bottom 20% of incomes have been stagnant over the past 15 years, a marked contrast to the top 1%, where income growth has skyrocketed due to the wealth created by globalization. That’s a reality of the current state of the globalization process, where capital yields more returns.

Globalization, however, Read the rest of this entry »

November 13th, 2008

Remedying the trade imbalance with China

Posted by John Carroll @ 9:19 am

Categories: Economic Policy, Intellectual Property, Microsoft

Tags: China, Microsoft Windows, Tools & Techniques, Operating Systems, Software, Management, John Carroll, Henry Paulson, Intellectual Property, Piracy

Microsoft has been grappling with the problem of piracy in China in an unusual way. Over 90% of proprietary software used in China is pirated, and for Microsoft Windows, some estimates put the figure much higher. Microsoft’s recent approach uses public shaming as a tool by which to curb the actions of people who use their software illegally. Most bootleg versions of Windows connect to the normal Windows update site to receive fixes. One of those fixes causes the background of illegal copies of Windows to turn completely black every hour.

The brilliance of this approach is that it doesn’t suddenly deny users the ability to access and use their computer. That would somewhat merit the hue and cry raised by Chinese users in response to Microsoft’s moves, as Microsoft would have denied them access to their own data. It just makes it obvious to everyone else that a particular computer uses pirated software. How well that works depends on a culture’s sensitivity to individual perception by others. I have it on good authority that it wouldn’t matter so much in Mexico, but China is a different story.

Whether the new policy changes piracy levels very much is an open question. Until it does, as Ballmer recently noted:

“China’s not really very important to our business right now. I’d like it to be but it’s not because of the high rate of piracy of intellectual property. We need some IP reform in China for it to be important to our financial results.”

Though the problems Read the rest of this entry »

November 5th, 2008

Windows Azure is much more important than Windows 7

Posted by John Carroll @ 9:35 am

Categories: Microsoft

Tags: Microsoft Windows 7, Windows Azure, Microsoft Windows, Operating Systems, Software, John Carroll, Server, Microsoft Corp.

If you were to base your opinion on what was the most important announcement at Microsoft’s Professional Developers’ Conference last week in Los Angeles, you might conclude that it was Windows 7. To a certain extent, that makes sense. If Windows Vista proved a difficult operating system for customers and reflected negatively on Microsoft, then its successor is of particular importance for the company. Windows doesn’t just represent a large portion of the company’s revenues (which it does). It also represents Microsoft’s ability to lay claim to developer mindshare.

I noted back in December of 2007 that Microsoft MUST make user experience (which includes interface) a priority. I thought then that putting Sinofsky in charge of the Windows development group and Julie Larson-Green in charge of the user experience for next generation Windows were inspired choices, given what they had done with Office 2007. That confidence seems to be born out in the directions they took with Windows 7, as revealed at the PDC.

However, it’s important to note that the keynote related to Windows 7 was presented on day TWO of the conference. At a conference whose sole purpose is to present to the public development futures at Microsoft, Windows Azure’s role in the opening keynote is expressive of an internal ranking among Microsoft executives that is the reverse of the emphasis given by bloggers. Windows 7 is incredibly important, to be sure, but in terms of Microsoft’s long-term vision of itself, I think Windows Azure is ranked higher.

Azure is clearly Read the rest of this entry »

November 3rd, 2008

Harnessing a multicore future

Posted by John Carroll @ 10:32 am

Categories: Programming

Tags: Processor, Microsoft .NET, Construct, Transistor, Multi-core, LINQ, PDC, Moore, Windows Workflow Foundation, John Carroll

There were a lot of things discussed at the PDC, and if I had the time, I probably could have written several articles each day on various subjects. If I had done that, however, I wouldn’t have had time to attend all the sessions which are such wonderful sources of information, hence cutting down on my ability to write articles about the PDC in the first place. This is why I think Microsoft needs to accelerate that cloning machine, so I can attend IT conferences, work on code related to my business, and spend a few months in Tahiti all at the same time.

So, this is a bit of the overflow from last week’s PDC, and I may have a bit more later this week, depending on what happens in the world of Information Technology.

Microsoft has been pouring a lot of resources into figuring out ways to help developers work around Moore’s “wall.” That’s a variation on Moore’s law, which postulated that the density of transistors on a processor would double every two years. This postulate proved correct, and the result was that CPU speeds doubled as the number of processors stored on them doubled, which made life very easy for programmers.

From a programming Read the rest of this entry »