February 19th, 2009

The message from GSMA Barcelona: fragmentation

Posted by John Carroll @ 3:35 pm

Categories: Mobile, Personal Technology, Telephony

Tags: Phone, Mobile, Palm Inc., Smart Phone, Conference, Telecom & Utilities, Smart Phones, Advertising & Promotion, Consumer Electronics, Personal Technology

Toshiba TG01

The GSMA Mobile World Congress, which took place this week in Barcelona, is the world’s largest telecommunications trade conference. It is rumored that 50,000 attendees descended on this Catalonian city for the event, though that is matched by whispers at hotels and restaurants that attendance figures are considerably lower than past events. I filled out a GSMA survey today which asked, among other things, whether my company was placing limits on trade conference attendance budgets, which to my mind hints that market difficulties are affecting telecommunications companies as much as the rest of the economy.

Even so, it is, quite simply, the largest trade fair I have ever attended. Spread across eight separate exhibition halls, it featured booths promoting companies that covered every possible niche in the telecom tapestry. Attractive models in revealing clothing swam among a sea of mostly men in dark colored suits, which is the oddest thing about the GSMA conference. I have been to a number of trade conferences during my career, and participants are usually attired in stereotypical T-shirts and backpacks. According to a public relations person to whom I spoke, formality is typical of telecommunications conferences, which made this jeans-wearing California guy feel somewhat out of place (next year, I’ll pack my suit collection as carry-on).

Apple was a no-show at this year’s conference, but the long shadow of their technical innovations and market success was well apparent. Every hardware vendor in the mobile device space is making a touch-sensitive mobile phone these days, and the screen layouts of many bear a striking resemblence to the now-iconic iPhone entry screen. Large screens are becoming increasingly the norm, which is good news for those companies hoping to convince mobile users to consume more video media while on-the-go. MOFILM, a mobile short film festival that got massive coverage at the conference on account of attracting famous people to provide keynotes and hand out awards (well, “a” famous person, a.k.a. Kevin Spacey), would certainly benefit if large screens became more the norm. I can’t see mobile media becoming much more than a niche product if screen sizes stay small…unless vendors start including projectors into phones (not impossible, as Texas Instruments displayed some rather nice mini-projectors in their booth), or else provide wires that allow users to plug their phone directly into a TV set (some of the mobile video chips on display can now handle 1080p).

Granted, there are Read the rest of this entry »

August 12th, 2008

Linux, user interfaces and copying Apple

Posted by John Carroll @ 10:39 am

Categories: Apple, Mobile, Open Source

Tags: Linux, Apple Macintosh, User Interface, Apple iPod, Apple Inc., Desktop Computer, Desktops, Hardware, John Carroll

Bob Sutor, IBM’s VP of open source and standards, recently declared at the Black Hat Security Conference in Las Vegas that the open source world needs to create new and innovative user interfaces distinctive to Linux desktops if they want to pose a greater challenge in the desktop space. He also stated that they have to clone less the look and feel of desktop Windows, even going so far as to state they would do better to clone the look and feel of Mac applications if they are writing applications for the traditional desktop PC. That last part sounds a bit odd. I’m not so sure that it would be wise to make desktop PC apps that look like Mac applications any more than it would be wise to make Mac applications that look like PC applications. It’s like speaking Japanese in France, and is more likely to confuse non-technical users than “wow” them with your design innovation skills.

The notion that Linux should chart its own user interface path makes more sense to me, however. I recently purchased a MacBook Pro for my wife, which has given me more chance to play with the Mac user interface and features up close. As I’ve indicated in previous posts, I’m far from impressed with the development APIs in the Mac world. In fact, I would go so far to say that I feel like I have stepped 10 years back in time when I start to mess around with XCode and the Cocoa APIs (not that that will stop me, as I am an old C++ hand (and Objective-C is just another language), but I’m not going to pretend that the Mac development experience is on par with that of a company who specializes in APIs and platforms).

But, as many a Read the rest of this entry »

June 20th, 2008

Cell phone as desktop computer

Posted by John Carroll @ 9:28 am

Categories: Apple, Google, Microsoft, Mobile

Tags: Desktop, Phone, Cell Phone, Computer, Desktop Computer, Telecom & Utilities, Cellular Phones, Consumer Electronics, Personal Technology, John Carroll

This is a bit of a crazy idea, but it constitutes part of the reason I keep harping on about the importance of full-blown desktop operating systems in cell phones. Yes, it creates developer consistency, meaning that the same skills used to develop apps for desktop computers map directly to cell phones applications. And yes, it means that developments in the desktop OS can be rolled out much faster to the cell phone, as the two environments are, for the most part, one and the same (not exactly, as you have different form factors / UI conventions, but you catch my drift). Both of these things accelerate the important role cell phones are going to play in our daily lives as these devices get more and more powerful.

Think about that growing power. Today, iPhone storage maxes out at 16 GB. Imagine in 10 years, when it could max out at 1.6 terabytes…or more. At those levels, people will start to carry around whole video libraries, every document they have ever created, and, of course, ALL of their music.

Obviously, the application story will have evolved in that time. Applications usable while riding on a bus will still need to accomodate the small screen of a mobile device. With that kind of power, however, a mobile phone in theory could act like an ultra-mobile computer.

This a variation Read the rest of this entry »

March 18th, 2008

Government endorsement of technology standards

Posted by John Carroll @ 9:59 am

Categories: Economic Policy, Mobile, Wired & Wireless

Tags: Phone, European Commission, Mobile, DVB-H, Verizon Communications Inc., Europe, Cell Phone, Standards, GSM, Cellular Phones

As reported yesterday on ZDNet, the European Commission is considering whether to officially back DVB-H as the “preferred” European Union standard for mobile television. This has been percolating for quite awhile (from at least July of last year, as gleaned through a quick Google search), so it’s not exactly “new” information. An official decision favoring DVB-H, however, would require that all member states mandate support of the new standard, likely through licensing regulations that require owners of wireless spectrum to provide support at least for “official” EC protocols in devices that use that spectrum.

One can to a certain extent see why European regulators might believe that an officially mandated standard is the best approach. Europe was ahead of the pack when it came to mobile phone adoption, with usage numbers vastly surpassing other regions, particularly the United States. This lead helped to turn European wireless companies into technology leaders, and made European wireless brands such as Nokia, Ericsson and T-Mobile into companies with globally-recognizable brands. GSM, the mobile standard used throughout Europe, was similarly mandated by governments. This would lead one to believe that early standardization on DVB-H would yield similar results.

I think, however, that the EC exaggerates the effect that standardizing on GSM had in Europe. GSM, in my opinion, had little to do with Europe’s lead in mobile phone adoption. That is due to the fact that Europeans tend to be spaced much closer together than other parts of the world. This ensured that more customers were served with each cell phone tower installed, creating a “bang for the buck” advantage that accelerated rollout throughout Europe (a region that, due to its wealth, could better afford early cell phone rollout than other more densely-packed nations in Asia).

Likewise, mandating Read the rest of this entry »

January 29th, 2008

Over a quarter of iPhones are "unlocked"

Posted by John Carroll @ 9:32 am

Categories: Apple, Mobile

Tags: Apple iPhone, Apple Inc., TVs, Tv & Home Theater, Personal Technology, Home Entertainment, John Carroll

It was always to be expected that a certain number of iPhone purchasers would go through the trouble of “unlocking” their device so it could be used on any network they want. This involves some work, and though web sites dedicated to the subject abound on the Internet, I always figured that most users would be as interested in customizing their iPhone as customizing their TV.

Clearly, I was mistaken, as reports have revealed that over quarter of all iPhones sold have been unlocked. That article also reveals the motivation for Apple’s willingness to “brick” customized iPhones, or iPhones altered so as to make them work on networks with whom Apple lacks an exclusivity arrangement (AT&T in the United States, O2 in the UK):

The higher number is worrying for Apple because the company receives a cut of AT&T’s iPhone service fees, revenue that carries a high gross margin and has fueled optimism over its earnings potential.

If the level of Read the rest of this entry »

June 29th, 2007

iPhone invades the cell phone market

Posted by John Carroll @ 9:32 am

Categories: Apple, Microsoft, Mobile, Personal Technology, Wired & Wireless

Tags: Apple iPhone, Phone, Cell Phone, Apple Inc., John Carroll

I’m going nowhere near my closest Apple store today, which is only a few blocks away from where I live in Hollywood. All evidence would suggest that the store will be an absolute madhouse. This is a shame, as I’ve been dying to take one of the devices for a spin (though not buy…I would have trouble justifying the expense given the other technology toys I’d like to buy).

I’ve been waiting for a full-screen phone ever since I worked at Orange Communications in Switzerland. Back then, SMS was the pinnacle of cell phone technology, though WAP was supposed to change all that and bring “the web” to cell phones.

What a joke. WAP is to the web what the children’s story “See Spot Run” is to Tolstoy’s “War and Peace.” It’s not “the web” by any stretch of the imagination. It was, however, a reflection of the extreme limits of most phones…a limit that still largely persists today.

Small screens Read the rest of this entry »

June 5th, 2007

Prada's iPhone competitor, and more

Posted by John Carroll @ 11:20 am

Categories: Apple, DRM, Digital Media, Mobile

Tags: Apple iPhone, Brand, Apple Inc., Prada, Luxury Brand, John Carroll

As everyone already knows, new AT&T ads that started airing recently have set an iPhone release date for June 29. I am very interested in trying it out. I was impressed by the touch-sensitive concept when it was announced earlier this year, and both online demos and the new AT&T ad make me want to hold the system in my hand and take if for a spin. If Apple has truly created a revolutionary new mobile phone UI concept, then more power to them.

On the other hand, there are signs that the concepts embodied in the iPhone have been percolating around the industry for awhile. At the very least, however, the iPhone has managed to accelerate those concepts to market, which is a good thing.

One thing Apple will have going for it, however, is its brand. Apple has created a strong brand through the success of its iPod, a brand that has had an obvious halo effect on sales of Apple computers. Part of that success is due to Apple spinning itself as a luxury brand, a term which grates on some more technophile Apple users, but not something Apple or its many non-technical users are likely to reject. Luxury brands carry high profit margins…and Apple hardware looks great.

Apple’s Read the rest of this entry »

May 30th, 2007

The endless journey to 3G

Posted by John Carroll @ 9:16 am

Categories: Economic Policy, Mobile, Wired & Wireless

Tags: Government, 3G, John Carroll

As reported yesterday on ZDNet, Nokia is in a fight with Qualcomm over patents that were part of a cross-licensing deal between the two companies which expired last month. Yes, patents don’t just harm software companies, but splash around the competitive landscape like an exploding creature from the mind of H.R. Giger, which seems particularly relevant given that those monsters supposedly had acid for blood. Hey, if you are looking for furniture that will terrify the in-laws, Mr. Giger’s creations are sure to fit the bill.

Poor 3G. Governments seem to be doing everything in their power to slow the rollout of a technology for which many will have trouble understanding the need, as most use phones primarily as voice and simple text messaging devices. To start, most governments around the world licensed 3G spectrum at prices so obscene that it drove a number of companies out of business. The 2000 auction in Germany yielded the government $65 billion USD, and that just gives the “winning” companies the RIGHT to broadcast on 3G spectrum. It doesn’t pay for the expensive hardware that mobile companies would have to roll out.

Further, some of the most obvious revenue spinners for 3G-enabled smartphones are being actively ruled out by prudish federal regulations. H.R. 4411, the Internet Gambling Probition and Enforcement Act, essentially ruled out any form of gambling using mobile devices. What’s next, prohibitions on naked pictures? If they did that, a lot of providers wouldn’t even bother with upgrades.

It’s taking so long

Read the rest of this entry »

April 26th, 2007

Free the Windows Mobile UI

Posted by John Carroll @ 8:37 am

Categories: Apple, General, Microsoft, Mobile

Tags:

I have a phone that runs Windows Mobile. It's a somewhat aging Audiovox unit that I intend, at some point in the near future, to upgrade to a Samsung Blackjack. Windows Mobile has a great developer story as its Windows CE core supports a modified form of WIN32, and with the .NET Compact Framework and integration with Visual Studio, makes it easy for Windows developers to target. That has likely been key to the platforms success in the enterprise, and the developer-oriented strategy plays to Microsoft's strengths in development tools and technologies.

Windows Mobile phones have a fairly distinctive UI, a likely part of Microsoft's attempt to build a strong brand association through its mobile platform. However, the imminent advent of Apple's iPhone introduces a radically new approach to the mobile user interface, one that appears to be more task oriented than the more general-purpose desktop Windows-inspired UI found in Windows Mobile (I say appears, as I have only ever played with the demo UI available on the Apple website).

Should Windows Mobile be

Read the rest of this entry »

February 9th, 2007

Samsung stealing iPhone thunder?

Posted by John Carroll @ 8:46 am

Categories: Apple, General, Mobile, Personal Technology, Wired & Wireless

Tags:

I was quite impressed with the iPhone, as were many others as evidenced by the run-up of Apple's stock in the hours after its announcement. After a few days, however, sobriety set in and I had a few iPhone-related concerns that I included in a blog post. One of those issues questioned how successful Apple would be in preventing similar phones from stealing some of the iPhone's thunder.

Well, perhaps "stealing its thunder" is the wrong term to use, because the iPhone could be part of a UI trend that has culminated this year and created phones of which Apple's offering is a notable example. That, at least, is what one could conclude from pictures of a new phone from Samsung (the development of which clearly had to parallel that of the iPhone).

Not only does the phone have a touchscreen, but as the photos show, it also has a keyboard hidden underneath. The entire UI is created in Flash, implying a level of UI customizability which doesn't currently exist for the iPhone. Plus, it enables viewing of HTML pages the way god intended them to be viewed. Last, it's 3G, vs. the iPhone's much slower EDGE (or in some cases, GPRS) data connection.

I don't know how it sizes up in other areas that matter to business people, such as Exchange integration, but it seems to fill a lot of the gaps in the iPhone, even if it doesn't have Apple's carefully cultivated invidious distinction (I know you don't agree with my use of that term, Anton).

As noted by others, Apple isn't walking into a market where there are no serious competitors. This is a market with lots of players, lots of competition, and lots of good design ideas from companies around the world. I have nothing but respect for Apple's hardware design skills. The phone market, however, is different than the market for iPods.

It will be a hard slog.  That doesn't mean, however, that I'm not happy Apple is going to try it.