January 5th, 2006
A Treo that runs Windows Mobile...
…whatever is the world coming to? Soon, cat’s will become good friends with dogs, Linux programmers will enthuse about the merits of the Windows operating system, and gravity will turn repulsive and send us all flying into outer space. Time to buy that Brookstone space suit.
It’s rather odd to see the former owner of the Palm operating system releasing products that run an operating system made by its arch-rival, Microsoft. It does seem pretty clear, though, that the Palm OS has lost the battle for handheld supremacy. They lost it the same way Betamax lost to VHS, Apple’s operating system (and everyone else’s) lost to Windows, and odd-gauge train tracks lost to standard gauge. Microsoft built an ecosystem around the PocketPC operating system that Palm simply could not match. Granted, the Palm OS was licensed to third parties, but Microsoft managed to get more licensees for it’s product, and combined with its ecosystem heft in other market segments (development tools, APIs, developer mindshare, etc.), Palm got outflanked.
Palm may still manage to make a niche for itself, though I think it’s best hope would be to layer itself with something that makes it plug more easily into the Microsoft ecosystem, by implementing, I don’t know….NET (that old saw again). The market is maturing, and it will be harder and harder for Palm to do things their way without taking into account the way things are done on the dominant ecosystem.
Historic trends favor the ecosystem builders over the island builders, and I would almost call it a law of technology economics. It makes sense, too, given that the more you spread around the innovation potential through licensing to third parties, the more brains are present to squeeze out new ideas, or else make a nice brain salad (okay, note to self, no more "Dawn of the Dead" at 12:30 in the morning).
One company has managed to buck that trend, however, and it has probably the most identifiable ad campaign currently in existence - the dancing silhouette with the two white tendrils attached where ears would be like some scene out of "Invasion of the Body Snatchers".
Apple’s iPod has been described as reaching "iconic" status, and that might just be true. Apple has more than 80% of the market for music players, a feat they’ve managed even though they do not license their FairPlay DRM to anyone else, and they don’t support the music format used by the other big media ecosystem (Windows Media Audio, or WMA).
Apple has built a media island, and everyone seems busy cramming themselves onto it. Why are people doing that?
In a word: Design. I can’t think of another music player that is as elegant as the iPod. It looks great, if feels like a quality product in your hand, and even grandma can figure out how to navigate around an iPod menu system.
I guess this is an example of the charisma principle. Take a room full of smart but above average looking people, and stick them in a debate. Then add a smart guy who just so happens to look like Brad Pitt. Who will the audience say won? Why, the Brad Pitt lookalike, of course.
By the way, I don’t mean that analogy to imply any disrespect of Apple (which is why the Brad Pitt lookalike is also smart). Apple has made a quality product that just so happens to be damn good looking. They deserve all the credit in the world for that. And just to put it all in perspective, I’m in the market for a music player, and I am SERIOUSLY considering an iPod.
It’s worth remembering, though, that the table is tipped towards ecosystem builders. Apple has managed to stay on top by hard work and quick thinking, but the ecosystem ocean surrounds them, and big waves are starting to appear. I watched today the CES keynote, and "Urge" - the new MTV / Microsoft partnership - certainly sounds interesting. It goes without saying that that partnership is oriented around Microsoft’s media technology. That might not matter much to those extreme computer types who think music is for the weak minded and find the hum of a cooling fan to be all they need, but it may just matter to acres of non-technical young people, a market segment that likely accounts for the lion’s share of iPod buyers and over which MTV has a lot of influence.
Add to that all the places WMA, and other media technologies made by Microsoft, work, such as CD players, car stereos, mobile phones, and, of course, portable music players. In a future as presented at the CES by Bill Gates where your digital media can follow you around on interactive surfaces like a strangely amorous fish, the ecosystem has the advantage.
Of course, that future is years away, and Apple still has the advantage, as well as time to spread itself into more devices. But then again, there was once a time when people laughed at the notion that PocketPC would ever amount to much.
John Carroll has delivered his opinion on ZDNet since the last millennium. Since May 2008, he is no longer a Microsoft employee. He is currently working at a unified messaging-related startup. See his full profile and disclosure of his industry affiliations.
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| 01/05/06
