November 25th, 2009

Are small cars doomed to fail in the American market?

Posted by Harry Fuller @ 6:05 pm

Categories: Blogroll, air pollution, biofuel, cars & traffic, conservation, energy, engineering, federal government, fossil fuel, green tech, law & politics, mass transit, petroleum

Tags: Car, Harry Fuller

Some auto industry analysts are warning that small, fuel efficient cars are NOT going to dominate the U.S. market. Does that mean failure for the GM Volt, Detroit’s first plug-in car, next year? Here’s a look at the potential for success or failure of smaller cars in the U.S. market. There seems no questions that the single most important factor in determining how big we drive: gasoline prices.

November 25th, 2009

Copenhagen will hear first U.S. pledge to cut emissions

Posted by Harry Fuller @ 1:14 pm

Categories: air pollution, federal government, fossil fuel, green tech, law & politics, mass transit, nuclear power, petroleum, renewable energy, solar, venture capital, wind

Tags: China, India, Barack Obama, Copenhagen, Harry Fuller

President Obama will speak at the Copenhagen climate talks on December 9. Six U.S. cabinet secretaries and head of the EPA will attend the full conference.

Obama’s presence will be early in the meeting, before the nitty-gritty negotiations talk place. That has alreasdy drawn sniping from other nations. There will be much argument in the U.S. over the potential cost of cutting emissions if that actually becomes more than a talking point and is enacted as law or regulation.

Obama will pledge the U.S. will cut greenhouse gas emissions by 17%, that’s taking the 2005 level and reducing it before 2020. That 17% is the exact number in the energy and climate bill passed by the House last spring, Waxman-Markey. The bills debated in Senate committees actually have a slightly higher level of cuts.

One of the key debate points in the U.S. Congress: will India and China make any cuts or will the U.S. act alone and thus hamper American industry in competing with India and China? At this point China says it will NOT offer up binding emission cuts as most of the damage to the climate has come from developed nations.

In addition many under-developed nations at Copenhagen are going to be looking for payments from wealthier nations. Nominally this would go to developing alternative energy and energy efficiency, within the usual limits of each country’s corruption level which can vary widely.

Overall this will be encouraging to alternative energy firms and their investors. Today the Cleantech Stock index was up. The NASDAQ Clean Edge Index has been climbing for the past two quarters.

This could also put the focus of many environmental groups on China and India. Perhaps boycotts? Both nations are heavily dependent on exports to Europe and the U.S.

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November 24th, 2009

East Anglia hacking: is this the ultimate litmus test on environmental politics?

Posted by Harry Fuller @ 4:18 pm

Categories: Blogroll, air pollution, climate change, conservation, environmental health, global warming, law & politics, research

Tags: Hacking, Global Warming, Harry Fuller

It seems the response a group or person has to the East Anglia climate center hack job is a good indication of moral and political values.

The right-wing John Birch Society calls the revelations from the email “global warming fraud unmasked” and “ideology masked as science.”

Rush Limbaugh declares the emails were made public by “a whistleblower.” In Rush’s world the science of global warming is a hoax. “the whole global warming — manmade global warming movement is a fraud. It is a hoax. It’s made-up lies.”

One Fox news commentator says, “Usually academic research is completely ignored by the general public but in this case proposed regulations, costing trillions of dollars, are being based on many of these claimed research results. This coordinated campaign to hide scientific information appears unprecedented.”

Unprecedented? Guess he chooses to overlook the tobacco companies’ efforts to cleanse records connecting cigarettes and various cancers. And then there’s the usual claim that cleaning up the atmosphere is too costly. In fact, like scrubbing the gases that were causing acid rain, cleaning the air often creates more jobs and more profits as well as makes the planet healthier.

On the left there’s already a call for one scientist prominently represented in the emails ro resign, and a call for the data to be re-analyzed.

That scientist granted his first interview since the theft. He says there is no conspiracy. “That the world is warming is based on a range of sources: not only temperature records but other indicators such as sea level rise, glacier retreat and less Arctic sea ice.”
It’s likely there’ll be a United Kingdom government investigation, not just of the theft, but the actions of those at the East Anglia climate study center. Says one British scientist, “The selective disclosure and dissemination of the messages has created the impression of impropriety, and the only way of clearing the air now would be through a rigorous investigation. ”

The BBC quotes one American climate scientist on the issue of transparency:
“The need for public credibility and transparency has dramatically increased in recent years as the policy relevance of climate research has increased.”

That’s shorthand for “We’re asking countries to make the kind of effort that usually goes for war or hosting the Olympics, so let’s be careful.”

That opinion in favor of transparency coincides with the majority of ZDnet blog readers repsonding to our poll on the hacking affair.

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There’ll no doubt be much palaver in the U.S. Congress with Republican global warming skeptics there already calling for an investigation.

So far there’s no indication the hacking and publication of the docs from East Anglia will have any material effect on the Copenhagen talks.

November 24th, 2009

Climate scientists saying global warming trend is worsening

Posted by Harry Fuller @ 4:00 pm

Categories: Blogroll, Kyoto Protocol, air pollution, climate change, conservation, environmental health, global warming, law & politics, ocean, research

Tags: Scientist, Climate, Global Warming, Harry Fuller

Today a 64-page “Copenhagen Diagnosis” was released by a group of climate scientists from several nations. They say now it looks like the average global temps couldclimb more than ten degrees Fahrenheit this century. Sea levels could increase more than three feet.

This report concludes that CO2 levels in the atmosphere are near the top of what the IPCC thought was possible when they issued their most recent report in 2007. The group says work on reducing man-caused greenhouse gasemissions must begin now.

“Our available emissions to ensure a reasonably secure climate future are just about used up,” said Matthew England, co-director of the Climate Change Research Centre of the University of New South Wales in Australia.

The 26 scientists from eight countries also say the polar ice caps are melting faster than expected. That the need for international action is “urgent.”

The group urges international action at the Copenhagen talks that begin December 7.

November 23rd, 2009

British scientists call for action in Copenhagen

Posted by Harry Fuller @ 5:55 pm

Categories: Blogroll, Europe, air pollution, climate change, energy, environmental health, global warming, law & politics, research

Tags: U.K., Copenhagen, Harry Fuller

Here’s a joint statement from the UK’s Met Office, the Natural Environment Research Council and the Royal Society on the the science of climate change ahead of the Copenhagen climate conference.

If you don’t care to read it, they’re saying: evidence of global warming is piling up, things are already deteriorating and humans should do something. Not mentioning the East Anglia hacking there in the UK, they say, “Climate scientists from the UK and across the world are in overwhelming agreement about the evidence of climate change, driven by the human input of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.”

The Copenhagen climate conference begins December 7th.

November 23rd, 2009

U.S. will propose emissions reduction before Copehagen talks

Posted by Harry Fuller @ 12:13 pm

Categories: Blogroll, Kyoto Protocol, air pollution, climate change, environmental health, federal government, law & politics

Tags: Greenhouse Gas Emission, U.S. Congress, Greenhouse Gas, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, House, Harry Fuller

The international conference on global warming will begin December 7th in Copenhagen, Denmark. Before that time the U.S. government will make a proposal about specific targets for emission reductions. This will be a complete reversal of the American official stance of the past nine years.

No legislation will have passed through Congress before December 7, so the White House position will be necessarily “nuanced” to take into account the tender feelings of the Congress. The House has passed a bill that calls for a 17% greenhouse gas emission reduction by 2020. The bills being bandied about the Senate set a slightly more aggressive goal. But like much in Washington it’s all smoke and vapor, until it’s real. And there’ll be no official energy and climate legislation out of this Congress this calendar year. The Senate now expects to talk energy in the spring. Assuming the healthcare bill doesn’t prove fatal. (Just kidding.)

Meanwhile, the EPA is back there studying and preparing. The EPA has already said it will begin to curtail emissions from major American industries, having declared CO2 emissions a public health hazard.

November 23rd, 2009

GM: not doing well, but going back to the well anyway

Posted by Harry Fuller @ 11:37 am

Categories: Blogroll, Europe, European Union, cars & traffic, green tech, law & politics, renewable energy

Tags: General Motors, Opel, Volt, plug-in, electric car

General Motors tried to sell Opel. No deal. So now GM is asking for almost $5 billion dollars, less than 4 billion Euros, to restructure Opel and the rest of its European operations. Will the EU put up the cash?

I blogged recently about GM using its Volt tech to put some electric spark into other GM brands, including stodgy Opel. The Volt, a GM plug-in, is due to launch in the U.S. in about one year.

November 23rd, 2009

East Anglia hacking: no arrest, plenty of investigation

Posted by Harry Fuller @ 7:52 am

Categories: Blogroll, Europe, air pollution, climate change, engineering, environmental health, global warming, law & politics

Tags: Hacking, Global Warming, Realclimate, E-mail, Online Communications, Harry Fuller

I’ve blogged about how global warming skeptics and ring-wing newspapers have been enjoying greatly their own interpretation of the emails and docs hacked from the University of East Anglia climate study center. Police have made no arrests in the cyber-theft. But investigations now are legion. And the findings break down along predictable political lines.

Here’s a left-wing British publicaiton condemning the letters for…being “dull.” No conspiracy, no cover-up. Lots of references to lunch. That pub goes on to talk about the global warming deniers use of strong emotional appeal to undermine the science.
The realclimate website was where the hackers originally tried to upload the documents, apparently. Realclimate alerted East Anglia’s climate center to the possible theft.

Realclimate says it’s been through the emails and found, “There is no evidence of any worldwide conspiracy, no mention of George Soros nefariously funding climate research, no grand plan to ‘get rid of the MWP’, no admission that global warming is a hoax, no evidence of the falsifying of data, and no ‘marching orders’ from our socialist/communist/vegetarian overlords. The truly paranoid will put this down to the hackers also being in on the plot though.”

On the other side, conservative observers can find conspiracy in the emails. Here’s one talkback on an American news website “It appears that the East Anglia researchers have been not only refusing to share the raw data, but actively doctoring the results. Science has now been politicized by the left, like liberal arts, like entertainment, like what passes for print journalism. This has been going on for decades and there are no trustworthy sources anymore, which is tragic.”

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November 22nd, 2009

East Anglia: one hacked U.S. scientist is hacked off

Posted by Harry Fuller @ 8:56 pm

Categories: Blogroll, Europe, Russia, air pollution, climate change, environmental health, global warming, law & politics, research

Tags: Scientist, Global Warming, E-mail, Online Communications, Harry Fuller

One American climate scientist says the hacked documents from the University of East Anglia are being used for propaganda, that only those hurting global warming scientists were released. The scientist found over 100 of his own emails posted online and said he was appalled. He went on to say the emails were posted out of context and some stolen material was not released.

The scientist also pointed out that the Copenhagen climate conference begins in two weeks.

Meanwhile global warming skeptics are having a fine time. The “Daily Mail” has this column on the stolen emails “…now come these leaked emails showing that the very scientists who were responsible for championing the hockey stick - all at the heart of the IPCC establishment - have been regularly discussing how the evidence could be manipulated to promote their cause.”

A right-wing American paper claims, “A partial review of the hacked material suggests there was an effort at East Anglia, which houses an important center of global climate research, to shut out dissenters and their points of view.”

Clearly this is going to be grist for much future name-calling and fear mongering. Is global warming threatening the future of civilization or is it just the figment of a global warming conspiracy?

Here are the three previous blogs on the East Anglia hacking:
The story breaks on Friday.
Early reaction.
More reaction.

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November 21st, 2009

East Anglia: Chapter 3

Posted by Harry Fuller @ 3:59 pm

Categories: Blogroll, Europe, climate change, environmental health, global warming, law & politics, research

Tags: Theft, Global Warming, Global Warming Skeptic, University, E-mail, Blogging, Online Communications, Internet, Harry Fuller

More projections and extrapolations based on the hacked emails and documents from the University of East Anglia.

A “Wall Street Journal” writer sees the scientists trying to hide data and reject Freedom of Information Act claims.

The global warming skeptics are perfectly happy to overlook the illegality of the hacking and theft of private emails, according to this blogger.

Police are investigating this data theft. The University says it cannot confirm that all the documents are genuine. The University’s public statement says the theft and release of the documents were done to deliberately undermine “the strong consensus that human activity is affecting the world’s climate in ways that are potentially dangerous.”

Copenhagen climate talks begin December 7, but it’s already been conceded that no binding agreement is likely to result from the talks.My first East Anglia blog. The second.

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