November 25th, 2009

Are small cars doomed to fail in the American market?

Posted by Harry Fuller @ 6:05 pm

Categories: Blogroll, air pollution, biofuel, cars & traffic, conservation, energy, engineering, federal government, fossil fuel, green tech, law & politics, mass transit, petroleum

Tags: Car, Harry Fuller

Some auto industry analysts are warning that small, fuel efficient cars are NOT going to dominate the U.S. market. Does that mean failure for the GM Volt, Detroit’s first plug-in car, next year? Here’s a look at the potential for success or failure of smaller cars in the U.S. market. There seems no question that the single most important factor in determining how big we drive: gasoline prices.

November 16th, 2009

How we think, and perhaps lie, about the oil supply

Posted by Harry Fuller @ 5:30 am

Categories: Europe, biofuel, cars & traffic, conservation, energy, environmental health, federal government, fossil fuel, green tech, law & politics, petroleum, renewable energy, research

Tags: International Energy Agency, Aleklett, Leadership, Government, Management, Harry Fuller

I recently blogged about one oil expert claiming the world’s oil supply is less than officially admitted. In the most recent report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), it’s clear what they are worried about: economic panic.

The IEA warns that continued rising oil prices could stymie economic growth on a wide scale. Oil prices have risen 80% this year from their low point after the economic woes that were openly recognized late in 2008. Crude is still less than $80 per barrel, far below the record prices of $140 or more a couple years back.

The U.S. and China rank #1 and #2 in national oil consumption.

DON’T TRUST THE IEA

A group of European academics are warning their governments to not trust the IEA oil supply figures. Without directly referencing the recent whistleblower who says the IEA is cooking the books, these scientists and engineers say the oil supply and production numbers have been “politicized.” That’s polite talk for corrupted and dishonest. The academics go on to say the world production of oil will actually decline between now and 2030, not increase as much as the IEA continues to project.

Here is where you can find this report on “Peak of the Oil Age.” The leader author is Kjell Aleklett of Uppsala University. Aleklett is president of ASPO, Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO).

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November 12th, 2009

Hybrids not the only greener cars

Posted by Harry Fuller @ 10:15 pm

Categories: Blogroll, China, Europe, air pollution, biofuel, cars & traffic, conservation, energy, engineering, fossil fuel, petroleum

Tags: Car, VW, Sales Strategy, Sales Force Management, Sales, Harry Fuller

VW is having a surge of sales in the U.S. without a hybrid model to market. VW says much of their increased sales is from fuel-efficient diesel models that out-perform standard gasoline engines. Modern diesel tech is much more fuel efficient and produces less CO2 emissions than gasoline or old-fashioned diesel engines some of us remember from the 1970s.

VW has not been immune to the global auto slump, however. Their profits and units sales numbers are down as they are for nearly all auto brands.

ONE HOT AUTO MARKET

In China auto sales are greatly increased year-to-year. The government has a vigorous set of incentives to increase car sales and it is helping most manufacturers, including GM and Ford who both saw big increase in sales in China.

November 11th, 2009

Chemistry of clean coal

Posted by Harry Fuller @ 8:43 pm

Categories: Blogroll, air pollution, biofuel, cars & traffic, climate change, conservation, energy, engineering, environmental health, federal government, fossil fuel, green tech, petroleum, research

Tags: Reaction Design, clean coal, coal, electricity, NREL, DOE, greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, carbon footprint

Currently coal-burning accounts for over 45% of American electricity. Once the coal is out of the ground, what are the environmental concerns? Mercury, sulphur, nitrogen compounds and CO2 emissions.

This clean coal dream is a big deal politically in the U.S. Half of the states have significant coal reserves. And one-fourth of all coal in the world is believed to be in the U.S. The coal supply known to exist in the U.S. has more energy potential than all the earth’s known petroleum reserves.

The National Energy Research Lab (NREL) within the Department of Energy (DOE) is embarked on a project to find a way to burn coal with minimum CO2 release into the atmosphere. CO2 is one of the greenhouse gases blamed for global warming. Over 3/4 of greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. is CO2 from energy use or production.

One greentech company hired to work on the clean coal project is Reaction Design of San Diego. I spoke recently with Bernie Rosenthal, Reaction Design’s CEO. His company had just gotten a DOE grant to work on next generation coal-burning power plants. The most efficient ways of getting electricity from coal is via gasification.
Coal gasification schematic. Courtesy Reaction Design.

So Reaction Designs is working on modeling the chemistry needed to gasify coal, then burn it to produce electricity while capturing as much CO2 as possible. Rosenthal explained that it’s crucial to understand the chemistry of what happens both during gasification of coal and then during combustion. That’s where his company comes in. Also, Reaction will work on ways to make the footprint, literally, smaller. Current technology would require enormous physical additions to coal burning plants just to gasify coal. There is no commercial scale plant in the U.S. that gasifies coal right now. What happens chemically in both the boiler and the combuster at a coal-burning plant will be examined by Reaction.

Whatever results and chemical models Reaction comes up with will be tested burning real coal under real conditions. Rosenthal says Reaction will also produce designs and chemical reaction models that can be scaled up to the size needed by the U.S. expanding appetite for electricity.

Other projects that Reaction Designs is working on include: modelling surrogate engine fuels for vehicles. This work was done with consortium of engine and fuel manufacturers. Results not made public yet. Some of that work may be applicable to power generation companies, says Rosenthal.

Reaction’s worked with airplane engine manufacturers looking at possible future jet fuels. Looking also at non-fossil fuels for military as well. That’s through a NASA project. And Reaction has a biofuels project with DOE. They’re looking at next generation biofuels for autos.

Before the talkbacks begin: yes, I know there’s much skpeticism about “clean coal.” There is also much criticism of our current dependence on coal and the environmental results, of which I have frequently blogged. However, there is almost no chance we Americans will stop burning mounds of coal in the foreseeable future so cleaning it up seems like a worthwhile endeavor. And clean coal would be a wonderful tech to sell to China.

November 9th, 2009

EPA takes next step toward regulating greenhouse gases in U.S.

Posted by Harry Fuller @ 8:35 pm

Categories: Blogroll, air pollution, biofuel, conservation, energy, engineering, environmental health, federal government, fossil fuel, green tech, law & politics, petroleum, renewable energy

Tags:

One more formal step has been taken by the EPA in its move toward regulating greenhouse gas emissions from major American air polluters. The EPA has formally submitted to the White House its finidng that greenhouse gas emissions are endangering public health. The White House budget office now has up to 90 days to review the finding before allowing the EPA to move ahead with implementing any regulations.

It is not likely the White House will find any major objection to the EPA’s proposal to regulate emissions from major industries in the U.S. That means the EPA is likely to move ahead next year on cutting greenhouse gas emissions regardless of any Congressional action or inaction. At this point the Senate is where the energy/environment bill is tied up. And with medical insurance the over-riding issue in Washington, there is little danger of any Congressional action on energy in the near future. The House passed its Waxman-Markey bill last spring.

The EPA is acting under the authority of the Clean Air Act so expect opponents to sue claiming the act does not give the EPA power to regulate CO2. That would happen after the EPA actually issues its regulations.

Barring Congressional action the EPA will be in the center of the fight over greenhouse gas rules in the U.S. And if Congress fails to act many industries will begin to engineer and position themselves to comply with any EPA regs putting even greater value on eliminating coal-burning as a source of industrial energy. And making carbon sequestration an even more attractive possibility. In the short run this should also make natural gas an even more valuable source of energy for traditional industries that need heat rather than simply electricity, that ranges for bakeries to cement plants to wallboard manufacturers to brick makers.

November 9th, 2009

Chemistry of the Corn Belt is changing

Posted by Harry Fuller @ 3:22 pm

Categories: Blogroll, biofuel, cars & traffic, conservation, environmental health, federal government, law & politics, water

Tags: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, USGS, Harry Fuller

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) says there are less toxic pesticides in America’s Corn Belt rivers. The study released today covers the decade ending 2006.

The USGS says, “Declines in concentrations of the agricultural herbicides cyanazine, alachlor and metolachlor show the effectiveness of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulatory actions as well as the influence of new pesticide products. In addition, declines from 2000 to 2006 in concentrations of the insecticide diazinon correspond to the EPA’s national phase-out of nonagricultural uses.”

“Scientists studied 11 herbicides and insecticides frequently detected in the Corn Belt region, which generally includes Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska and Ohio, as well as parts of adjoining states. This area has among the highest pesticide use in the nation — mostly herbicides used for weed control in corn and soybeans. As a result, these pesticides are widespread in the region’s streams and rivers, largely resulting from runoff from cropland and urban areas.

“Elevated concentrations can affect aquatic organisms in streams as well as the quality of drinking water in some high-use areas where surface water is used for municipal supply. Four of the 11 pesticides evaluated for trends were among those most often found in previous USGS studies to occur at levels of potential concern for healthy aquatic life. Atrazine, the most frequently detected, is also regulated in drinking water.”

“Only one pesticide — simazine, which is used for both agricultural and urban weed control — increased from 1996 to 2006. Concentrations of simazine in some streams increased more sharply than its trend in agricultural use, suggesting that non-agricultural uses of this herbicide, such as for controlling weeds in residential areas and along roadsides, increased during the study period.”

“Glyphosate, an herbicide which has had rapidly increasing use on new genetically modified varieties of soybeans and corn, and which now is the most heavily used herbicide in the nation, was not measured until late in the study and thus had insufficient data for analysis of trends.”

Monsanto markets glyphosate as Roundup. Roundup does not meet with universal acceptance with some researchers questioning its safety.

The use of herbicides and pesticides is intensive in both the food industry and the biofuel industry that uses corn to make ethanol.

November 5th, 2009

Kerry-Boxer bill gets out of the (first) box

Posted by Harry Fuller @ 3:38 pm

Categories: Blogroll, air pollution, biofuel, cars & traffic, climate change, conservation, energy, environmental health, federal government, fossil fuel, green tech, law & politics, petroleum

Tags:

The Kerry-Boxer bill got out of the first Senate committee to consider it, but it did so over the trampled bodies of Republicans who oppose it and boycotted the committee session.

There are other energy and greenhouse gas proposal swirling through the Senate, and those will be meshed with the Kerry-Boxer bill. I blogged earlier about the tri-partite effort to negotiate some energy legislation that could get enough votes to pass the Senate.

Even though the House passed a different energy bill last spring, today the Speaker of the House said the Senate bill can be meshed with the House’s earlier version.

November 4th, 2009

Remember Kerry-Boxer?

Posted by Harry Fuller @ 3:45 pm

Categories: Blogroll, Kyoto Protocol, air pollution, biofuel, building, cars & traffic, climate change, conservation, energy, engineering, environmental health, federal government, fossil fuel, geothermal, global warming, green tech, law & politics, nuclear power, petroleum, renewable energy, solar, water, weather, wind

Tags: Page, Outsourcing, It Operations, Business Operations, Outsourcing & Subcontracting, Harry Fuller

Well, now it may become Kerry-Graham-Lieberman-Boxer. And opponents of nuclear energy may go nuclear over the nuclear option. Not only will the next version of the Senate’s energy and climate change bill include more nuc, it may also include even more offshore oil drilling than is called for by the previous Kerry-Boxer. What’s not known: how many more pages will be added? The now-old bill had less than a thousand pages.

Meanwhile, Republicans on the committee considering Kerry-Boxer insist there needs to be a full economic analysis of its proposals, all 900+ pages worth.

Meanwhile we’re five weeks away from the start of the international climate talks in Copenhagen where the U.S. negotatiors will show up with lots of good intentions and little more. The World Wildlife Fund, focused more on other species with no votes and no money, issued a report asking the nations of the world to re-industrialize. Essentially they’re calling for completely retooling the planet’s energy systems to lower emissions and curtail global warming and the extinctions that it’s expected to trigger. Wall Street wouldn’t like that one bit.

November 2nd, 2009

Kerry-Boxer bill battle set for Tuesday

Posted by Harry Fuller @ 11:27 am

Categories: Blogroll, air pollution, biofuel, building, cars & traffic, climate change, conservation, energy, environmental health, federal government, fossil fuel, geothermal, global warming, green tech, law & politics, mass transit, nuclear power, petroleum, renewable energy, solar, water, wind

Tags: Bill, Pollution, Harry Fuller, Kerry-Boxer bill, U.S. Senate, cap and trade, public opinion, rogue nation, greenhouse gas, emissions

The Republicans are not going to be present, but a U.S. Senate committee will apparently move ahead to approve a massive energy and air pollution regulation bill. This is the Kerry-Boxer bill. There’s a rule loophole that will allow Commitee Chairwoman Barbara Boxer (D-CA) to move ahead with no Repubs present.

Here you can peruse the entire bill, all 959 pages of it.

The bill currently contains cap and trade and tighter emission standards than the bill passed by the House last spring. I blogged earlier on the political problems this Kerry-Boxer bill faces.

It’s very clear there’s little public agreement in the U.S. about global warming, or what we should do about it. In the eyes of much of the rest of the world this once again makes the U.S. a rogue nation. Tops in greenhouse gases, along with China, but not willing to admit we need to do anything about it.

November 2nd, 2009

Will there be a new energy and air pollution law?

Posted by Harry Fuller @ 6:17 am

Categories: Blogroll, air pollution, biofuel, cars & traffic, climate change, conservation, energy, engineering, environmental health, federal government, fossil fuel, global warming, green tech, law & politics, mass transit, nuclear power, petroleum, renewable energy, solar

Tags: Pollution, U.S. Senate, Boxer, Harry Fuller, energy efficiency, greenhouse gas, CO2, cap and trade, Congress, emissions

Current wisdom among the Beltway blatherers: it will take six Republican votes to get an energy bill through the Senate. That might be done if the bill becomes a big enough gift to energy corporations and other vested interests. The move to get bi-partisan support might even include an effort to get more nuclear power plants built in the U.S. Nuclear’s been political no-go territory now for three decades. Nuclear in the U.S. gets little support from most American enviornmental groups and is disliked by fossil fuel companies.

So far there’s been no overt Republican support for the Kerry-Boxer bill as it is now. The House last spring passed its own energy and climate change legislation (Waxman-Markey) but the Senate chose to start over.

There’s going to be a move by Chairwoman Barbara Boxer (D-CA) to get the Senate version of an energy bill marked up and out of her committee this week. One of the provisions of the current Senate bill is cap and trade on greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, the seven Republican members have vowed to boycott any such committee work. And without two Repubs present, the committee cannot act under Senate rules. Will they suspend the rules? Is the Senate bill DOA? Boxer intends to move ahead with the bill tomorrow. Not clear what movement can be taken.