October 1st, 2005
Assessing Battelle's 10 1996 predictions for 2006 tech
On Saturday I went out to Powell’s Books (here in Portland we have real live brick n’ mortar Powell’s) and bought "The Search," the new book about Google by John Battelle. John was the co-founding editor of Wired and the Industry Standard, and is currently publisher of emerging blog service Federated Media Publishing.
I then remembered that I thought I had have one of John’s 1996 pieces bookmarked. Turns out the piece was from an unrelated Battelle- Battelle Science & Technology International. In this piece, John Battelle predicted the "ten most innovative products" he assumed would be available by 2006."
Well, I am writing this on the first day of the last quarter of 2005. Let’s see how close we are to the fulfillment of John’s Battelle’s nearly ten-year old vision. Some may be off the topic of this blog, but I’d like to think we all know each other well enough by now to appreciate this ride. Plus, I wanna be like Om.
Bold-face text is John’s; Battelle’s; regular type face is mine. Ready?
1. Genetaceuticals. "Genetics-based medical treatments will cure or mitigate the effects of various human diseases and disorders, including pharmaceutical treatments for osteoporosis, MS, cystic fibrosis, Lou Gehrig’s disease, and Alzheimer’s. "
Where We Are: It’s early. I’d say osteoporosis would be the least difficult (I didn’t say "easiest,"I said "less difficult," and there’s a big honkin’ difference.
2. Personalized Computers. "Your personal computer at home and in your office will be replaced by a very powerful ‘personalized’ computer. It will recognize your voice and follow your voice commands, and it will include a variety of security and service tools to personalize the computer for its individual owner. The personalized computer will be as mobile and versatile as its user, sending and receiving wireless data and accessing information from remote sites.
Where We Are: Voice recognition is much improved, but still requires that you teach the program the intricicies of your own voice. There are security and service tools,and yes, sending and receiving wireless data and remote information access is certainly here.
3. Multi-Fuel Automobiles. To obtain maximum efficiency and meet stringent environmental standards, vehicles will use combinations of various fuels, such as reformulated gasoline, electricity, and natural gas. Vehicles may carry more than one fuel type, with an on-board computer that will conduct on-going analyses of travel conditions to calculate fuel mixtures for maximum fuel efficiency and performance.
Where We Are: Not where we need to be, but hybrid vehicles like the Prius are a start.
4. Next Generation TV. In ten years, our television set will be large and flat and will hang on the wall much like a large painting. It will be a digital, high-definition model with clarity approaching that of a movie screen. This TV will be much more than just an entertainment device–it will also be used as a computer monitor capable of networking with other computers as an interactive, videoconferencing device.
Where we are: Flat panel is here, but our tv’s aren’t hanging on the walls just yet. But HDTV is spreading, and the better units can be used as a networking device. Videoconferencing via home tvs is on the way, too.
5. Cyber cash. Electronic money will be used for everything from buying soda in a vending machine to making an international transaction over your computer. Pockets will rarely jingle in ten years as credit card-sized smart cards begin to replace cash, as well as house and car keys.
Where we are: Part of the way but a long way to go. Last time I checked, I had to pay coin of the realm for a Cola. My house and car keys are still on my chain, but smart cards and PCs are starting to make transactional music together.
6. Home health monitors. These devices will be simple-to-use, non-invasive, and relatively inexpensive for use in monitoring health conditions at home. Many physical functions–liver functions, ovulation, levels of cholesterol, triglycerides, sugar, hormones, water, salt, and potassium–may be monitored as easily as weight is now tracked by bathroom scales.
Where we are: This needs to happen but thus far has been happening in baby steps. Not because this is a flawed concept, but there’s a lack of vision. My colleague, fellow blogger Dana Blankenhorn has been talking about this for years now. He calls it "The World of Always-On." Someone ought to build a platform for this.
7. Smart maps and tracking devices. Getting "there" will be decidedly easier with the widespread use of Global Positioning Systems-"smart" maps that will show travelers, boaters, and hikers their exact position and direction. Global positioning systems also will be used to help prevent crime by tracking the exact location of cars and other valuables. People also will be able to track the exact location of their children and even their pets.
Where we are: Of all of John’s these predictions, this one is closest to complete fruition. And yes, you can RFID your cat.
8. Smart materials. New materials for construction and other uses will be able to give off warnings when they detect excessive stress. For instance, materials in bridges or office buildings could change color before conditions become unsafe. Automobile parts could give a similar warning when approaching the point of breakdown.
Where we are: Not extremely knowledgeable on this subject, but from what I understand we are closer to reality on the "auto parts" segment of John’s prediction than the others.
9. Weight-control and anti-aging products. Though no Fountain of Youth is on the horizon, new products will make aging a little less traumatic. These new developments may include weight-control drugs that use the body’s natural weight-control mechanisims, wrinkle creams that actually work, foods with enhanced nutrients, and an effective cure for baldness. Many of these developments will come from genetic research.
Where we are: Discernible progess in the nutrient area, but as far as weight-control drugs are concerned, it seems there is a craft beyond mere appetite suppression that has yet to be perfected. "Effective cure for baldness?" Haven’t heard of one. Dudes still are doing the comb-over, and getting transplants.
10. Never-owned products. Major household appliances, such as furnaces, air conditioners, washers, dryers, and water heaters will be leased instead of purchased. This trend will be spurred by environmental concerns and regulations, cost, and the increasing speed of technology, which causes products to become obsolete quicker.
Where we are: As someone who covers the hotel industry for a leading industry mag, I do know there are more leasing options for these products available to hoteliers. Some of this does have to do with the rapid pace of technology. But when youare talking about lease vs. purchase of household goods, much of the leasing activity is of the old rent-to-own variety aimed at the non-creditworthy. And,these tend to be older units rather than cutting edge.
All in all, John, not bad. Now can we have another 3-5 years on some of these?
Russell Shaw is an enterprise computing journalist, analyst and author based in Portland, Oregon. See his full profile and disclosure of his industry affiliations.
