February 8th, 2006
Vonage IPO analysis: they better execute-or else
In light of Vonage’s IPO- just announced today, I feel I should elaborate on something important.
How successful Vonage is in terms of enhancing and expanding their service will be greatly influenced not only by how well they execute, but how much money Vonage has to work with.
Here are some clues from information in the filing:
Vonage’s revenue was $167.3 mil. for the first nine months of 2005.
Vonage posted a net loss of $189.6 mil. for the first nine months of 2005. Seems as though "financing activities" (I guess that means VC money) seems to be filling that breach. In the filing Vonage said its net cash flow from financing activities for the first nine months of 2005 was $195.9 mil.
Vonage ended the first nine months of 2005 with 1.062 mil. customers, up from around 391,000 at year-end 2004. For the first nine months of 2005, the average monthly revenue generated per line was $26.63 for the first nine months of 2005.
In terms of the financial obligations hanging over Vonage’s head, the key to me is how quickly they can sell enough stock to generate the type of excitement that will keep their initial venture capital "financing activities" partners in a positive mindset. What Vonage doesn’t want to do is gum up execution and stub their toe against a raft of nimble competitors- slowing down subscriber growth and stunting the stock price as a consequence.
If that happens, well with the exception of "a woman scorned," hell hath no fury like a disillusioned VC.
Russell Shaw is an enterprise computing journalist, analyst and author based in Portland, Oregon. See his full profile and disclosure of his industry affiliations.
