May 4th, 2009
Is Wolfram Alpha overhyped?
Wolfram Alpha, the analytics-based “answering engine” built by Stephen Wolfram on his Mathematica software, is drawing immense hype even before its launch later this month.
An invention that could change the Internet forever.
Too much? Yes, I think so. (The picture is from Larry Dignan’s piece on Wolfram Alpha last week.)
There is a basic misunderstanding at work. Google is not an invention. It’s a system. It did not magically transform the Internet and its folkways at launch. That happened over years, as its initial PageRank innovation scaled into what’s now called cloud computing.
There is invention, in other words, and then there is management. Stephen Wolfram is a genius. But can he manage a scaled system? It would be a waste of his talents.
Consider the case of Thomas Edison. Google’s Larry Page sees Edison as a role model. But Edison did not die rich. He lost control of electrical technology to Tesla, and lost control of sound technology to rival recording companies. He had trouble letting go and sharing credit. He was selfish even when that ran against his interests.
Not that there’s anything wrong with that. The point is that letting go is an essential element in high tech entrepreneurship. Business instincts and true genius seldom match up.
It’s true Bill Gates is no Edison, but Edison was no Gates. Neither is anything like Wolfram. In building truly scaled systems Wolfram is untested.
Since the Web was spun I have seen countless intriguing start-ups blow up over management issues. Yahoo couldn’t manage to manage, and I’m old enough to remember when Yahoo was cool.
While everyone else will be looking at how Wolfram Alpha answers questions, I’m a lot more interested in who Stephen Wolfram hires to manage the project, and what their track record is, and how they will handle it when everyone “rushes to the rail” for a taste of what it’s offering.
Will he get the proper mix of youthful exuberance and sober management? Will he find corporate partnerships that nurture what’s best about it and don’t try to milk it as News Corp. milked Myspace?
As Stephen Sondheim wrote in “Sunday in the Park with George,” “Having just a vision’s no solution, everything depends on execution.”
That’s the real adventure.
Dana Blankenhorn has been a business journalist for 30 years, a tech freelancer since 1983. You can follow Dana on Twitter. See his full profile and disclosure of his industry affiliations.
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| 05/04/09
