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December 27th, 2007

2008: Linux's year on the desktop

Posted by Robin Harris @ 4:04 pm

Categories: Infrastructure, Software

Tags: Desktop, AsusTek Computer, Microsoft Corp., Linux, UNIX, Operating Systems, Open Source, Software, Robin Harris

Desktop Linux hurts Microsoft
Linux has kept a big chunk of the server business out of Microsoft’s hands. But in 2008, Linux will hurt Microsoft on the desktop. Here’s how.

A new computing platform
Thanks to Moore’s Law and evolving application needs, a new computing platform arrives every 10 years. Mainframes in the ’50s, minicomputers in the ’60s, PCs in the ’70s, microcontrollers in the ’80s, PDAs and cell phones in the ’90s and now sub-$400 - soon to be sub-$300 notebooks.

Small and light enough to be carried everywhere, these sub-notes provide Internet access, PDA functionality and basic mail and document creation functionality at a rock-bottom price. Asustek is expected to build 1,000,000 Eee sub-notes in Q1 ‘08 alone. Asustek’s competitors are just getting warmed up.

What can Microsoft do?
Microsoft has gotten fat on the $50 Windows tax it charges PC manufacturers. But on a razor-thin margin vendors can’t afford Windows.

So they’re going with Linux. If Asustek sells 5 million Eee’s, and their competitors sell another 5 million, several million consumers will be introduced to desktop Linux for the first time.

And millions of copies of Windows and Office won’t be sold.

Microsoft will skate in ‘08
For all the attention Apple gets for its growing market share, the Linux-based sub-$400 notebook/sub-$200 desktop unit sales will be several times as large in 2008. Even combined this won’t hurt Microsoft in 2008, thanks to the growing migration to Vista.

2009 is a different story. 25 million Linux desktops will take a bite out of Microsoft sales - one that Wall Street will certainly notice.

The Storage Bits take
Microsoft’s days as a de facto monopoly are coming to an end - and not a moment too soon. Increasingly desperate attacks on Linux will intensify, but how does Microsoft go after Wal-Mart?

Comments welcome, of course. How should Microsoft respond to very-low-cost Linux systems?

Robin HarrisRobin Harris has been messing with computers for over 30 years and selling and marketing data storage for over 20 in companies large and small. See his full profile and disclosure of his industry affiliations.


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Linux could be viable OS but needs to be more user friendly
Could it be that users need to be more Linux
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One could hardly be expected to like a
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Open source M$  rcugini@... | 01/02/08
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FINALLY SOMEONE WHO MAKES SENSE  jward01 | 01/09/08
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Wrong  pkrdk | 01/10/08
correction  pkrdk | 01/10/08
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That's Mikey. He's very insightful.  bjbrock | 12/28/07
How dare you doubt the mighty Cox?  NetArch. | 12/28/07
But it's always fun....  MGP2 | 12/29/07
I heard That  Blogsworth | 12/30/07
RE: But it's always fun....  joe6pack_z | 01/09/08
he pushed it a bit with the Zune comment  SirRoundSound | 01/09/08
So he's the Stephen Colbert of computing? NT  macoafi | 01/02/08
Oh! Crimeny! What a hoot!  ChatoYSugar@... | 01/03/08
In saying that though  Sparhawk_z | 01/09/08
PCLinuxOS - uber-cool with Beryl cube  Don Collins | 12/28/07
Beryl's dead  Michael Kelly | 12/28/07
Xorg is ...  daengbo | 01/02/08
i've never seen the BSOD with vista not saying some don't but  SO.CAL Guy | 12/28/07
Well I am amazed that Vista....  mrOSX | 12/28/07
It will load Windows 2000 drivers too. (nt)  ye | 12/28/07
I've seen a few  voska1 | 12/28/07
I've never experienced a BSOD from my vista  alaniane@... | 01/02/08
SoCal - I have, yesterday in fact  drprod@... | 01/02/08
I'm confused  alaniane@... | 01/03/08
Did you know...  handydan918 | 01/12/08
what?  billw1234 | 01/02/08
OLPC=Linux. Vista Home=70% new PC's  RDrr | 01/02/08
Mike's Very Real  Joe Frisco | 01/09/08
Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!.......... queit.....  Ole Man | 01/09/08
Oooooooooooops! Supposed to be a reply to davidsarmstrong below  Ole Man | 01/09/08
MS Wow  davidsarmstrong | 01/09/08
LICE?  P. Douglas | 12/28/07
Let's extend it to "five 9s"...  techboy_z | 12/28/07
I love it, Mike Cox has spoken!  terry flores | 12/28/07
9.9 - Caught fish & loved the LICE comment (nt)  BanjoPaterson | 12/28/07
Hook, line and sinker. Drum roll please....  D. T. Schmitz | 12/28/07
What?????  jdawgnoonan | 12/29/07
Mikey hooks another one happy  georgeou | 12/30/07
Happy gamers  Limpalot | 01/05/08
Pay no attention to that person behind the curtain...  no_zd_user_name | 12/30/07
2008 The Year that  Blogsworth | 12/30/07
I don't by your logic  gwzap2008 | 12/30/07
RE:Don't buy into this  bmobile40 | 12/31/07
9.9: Great to see Mike regaining form  nilotpal_c | 01/02/08
9.9 here too  dimonWar | 01/02/08
You're way off  nyabdns | 01/02/08
He's delibrately way off  alaniane@... | 01/03/08
Yeah right  Limpalot | 01/05/08
Mike Cox  stanralph | 01/02/08
Vista Home Basic  atari8bit@... | 01/02/08
Mikey Must Be Pleased  aallord | 01/03/08
ROFLOL!  ChatoYSugar@... | 01/03/08
Joke of the month - thanks.  pkrdk | 01/10/08
RE: 2008: Linux's year on the desktop  joe6pack_z | 12/27/07
Rent a Clue!  ShadeTree | 12/28/07
Catch this  myesb | 12/28/07
Catch up  frgough | 12/28/07
Yet it powers the internet.  Suicida| | 12/30/07
Try to be relevent.  ShadeTree | 12/31/07
You say Linux is "me too"??  mbratch | 01/02/08
What?!?!?! FUNDAMENTALS ARE FORGOTTEN  jward01 | 01/09/08
Yeah no kidding  rmjivaro | 01/10/08
Re: Rent a Clue!  mKind | 12/28/07
Windows has multiple workspaces also.  ShadeTree | 12/31/07
Sorry but it seems you are clueless  Linux User 147560 | 01/01/08
Poorly implemented doesn't even begin to describe it  macoafi | 01/02/08
2 of my favorite parts of window management  macoafi | 01/02/08
Easy to adjust  The_Curmudgeon | 01/06/08
Ya'll ready for this!?  Linux User 147560 | 12/28/07
All of these are things that Linux ....  ShadeTree | 12/31/07
You asked what Linux had first before Windows  Linux User 147560 | 01/01/08
Linux's year  CassidyJames | 01/06/08
Yeah? So?  rmjivaro | 01/10/08
RE: Rent a Clue!  devlin_X | 12/28/07
Not exactly any thing new huh or not supported ....  ShadeTree | 12/31/07
Nope Linux  Linux User 147560 | 01/01/08
Whoops  CassidyJames | 01/06/08
Try again!  CassidyJames | 01/06/08
You are actually wrong  jdawgnoonan | 12/29/07
Name one!  ShadeTree | 12/31/07
We did but you continue  Linux User 147560 | 01/01/08
I would hazard  alaniane@... | 01/02/08
Easy  pkrdk | 01/10/08
MS will be fine... it is Apple that should worry  NonZealot | 12/27/07
No problem for Apple  voska1 | 12/28/07
You are wrong too  jdawgnoonan | 12/29/07
Hmmmmmm.....  Laff | 12/28/07
I think he was talking about 5% of the market and not...  ye | 12/28/07
I went back to check his wording and while I agree  Laff | 12/28/07
Speaking of Leopard and Apple...  Laff | 12/28/07
Agreed  DarthRidiculous | 12/28/07
Disagreed !!!  Non_Zealot | 12/29/07
Apple is in more trouble than MS is, though  progon | 12/28/07
Well clear up a coupling of things  mrOSX | 12/28/07
Linux and Mac  bokin411@... | 01/02/08
No ...  daengbo | 01/02/08
blinded by zealotry...  Clewin | 01/09/08
Let crApple go bankrupt.  HypnoToad72 | 12/28/07
crApple....OUCH Apple's feeling!  Laff | 12/28/07
Your math.....  thungurknifur | 01/04/08
web apps kill windows  cofoley@... | 12/27/07
Absolutely true  Don Collins | 12/28/07
True...but...  techboy_z | 12/28/07
Being Free?  croberts | 12/28/07
Two points here...  techboy_z | 12/31/07
It's always the applications  THEE WOLF | 12/27/07
It's not just an extra $50  voska1 | 12/28/07
I am running Vista  BroGnorik | 12/28/07
Tons of little things actually  voska1 | 12/28/07
A 10GB HD?!?!?!  ye | 12/28/07
Talk about missing the point  voska1 | 12/28/07
I'm understanding alright. You're limiting...  ye | 12/28/07
Can I play too?  Linux User 147560 | 12/28/07
@Linux User: Did you have a point?  ye | 12/28/07
Yes, I do  Linux User 147560 | 12/28/07
It's inadequete if the user wants to do more than...  ye | 12/28/07
You're still missing the point  voska1 | 12/28/07
@voska1: No, I am not missing the point.  ye | 12/28/07
Ok give me a free 100 GB drive then  voska1 | 12/31/07
Or it could be that they don't want/need Vista.  B.O.F.H. | 12/29/07
How about doing some research yourself?  ye | 12/30/07
Ye, you are obsessed with Vista (and still missing Voska1s point).  B.O.F.H. | 12/30/07
My x300 Harmony  BroGnorik | 12/28/07
I don't blame Microsoft or anyone  voska1 | 12/28/07
RE: It's not just an extra $50  devlin_X | 12/28/07
If your OS doesn't need 900MB to load...  bjbrock | 12/28/07
Running Web Apps?  serpentmage | 12/28/07
Wrong Paradigm  croberts | 12/27/07
Untold numbers of users...  bjbrock | 12/28/07
What should Microsoft do?  itpro_z | 12/27/07
High End/Low End  lordshipmayhem | 12/28/07
True  itpro_z | 12/28/07
What about Apple...  gwzap2008 | 12/30/07
Robin reads the numbers and sees the future  zaine_ridling | 12/27/07
It was 20,000 not 200,000.  ShadeTree | 12/28/07
Yeah,  Linux User 147560 | 12/28/07
Are you referring to this one:  ye | 12/28/07
With closed eyes maybe...  No_Ax_to_Grind | 12/28/07
Eee PC? Who wants to use that crap...  janestone | 12/28/07
Eee PC? Who wants to use that crap...  thirdshiftcoder@... | 12/28/07
Ignoramus  pkrdk | 01/10/08
Linux is the way to go  ac567@... | 12/28/07
Goodbye, Microsoft  ac567@... | 12/28/07
I disagree: Closer to "Hello Microsoft"  GuidingLight | 12/28/07
Adapt or die  lordshipmayhem | 12/28/07
Don't count Microosft out yet  voska1 | 12/28/07
You're on the right track  Ole Man | 12/31/07
The only way  BroGnorik | 12/28/07
Linux for the Poor  Tiggster | 12/28/07
Frugality is the root of wealth  Ole Man | 12/31/07
This song is getting old...  wolf_z | 12/28/07
Rewriting yes....  mrOSX | 12/28/07
No rewriting needed for Vista  wolf_z | 12/28/07
Well then why all the crying by folks...  mrOSX | 12/28/07
You seem to have it confused with OS X Leapord. (nt)  No_Ax_to_Grind | 12/28/07
Guess they're just that...  wolf_z | 12/28/07
Vista isn't ready for prime time  voska1 | 12/28/07
I beg to differ  wolf_z | 12/29/07
Oh a huge list  voska1 | 12/31/07
Ah, Yes...It's That Time Of Year Again...  bhartman33@... | 12/28/07
Agreed. The issue then becomes  GuidingLight | 12/28/07
Naked Machines  lordshipmayhem | 12/28/07
Naked Machines  cornpie | 12/28/07
You are correct, sir!  bhartman33@... | 12/28/07
Say What?  rgetsla | 12/30/07
You're right  daengbo | 01/02/08
in my store i sell computers with linux installed and over the years i can  SO.CAL Guy | 01/02/08
I have Linux  alaniane@... | 01/03/08
Out of the Box Experience  bhartman33@... | 12/28/07
I may have taken your post too literally  GuidingLight | 12/28/07
You're right about that.  bhartman33@... | 12/28/07
FOR ME 2007, was the year of the Linux Desktop!  joe@... | 12/28/07
Depends where you start counting  voska1 | 12/28/07
Virtualbox, etc.  bhartman33@... | 12/28/07
I Have to Correct Myself  bhartman33@... | 12/29/07
MS vs Penguins?  TheNose | 01/04/08
I'd have to add, Linux would have to advertise for a change  Boot_Agnostic | 01/05/08
"Windows Tax" largely a myth.  cornpie | 12/28/07
Dell already sells Linux pre-installed and it costs about...  ye | 12/28/07
MMMM..Am I looking in the wrong place?  cornpie | 12/28/07
I think you were  wolf_z | 12/28/07
Go to:  ye | 12/28/07
Whoops...make that "upper left hand corner"  ye | 12/28/07
You living under a rock?  devlin_X | 12/28/07
Why or why does this happen every year?  No_Ax_to_Grind | 12/28/07
It's the apps, stupid  Michael Kelly | 12/28/07
Because, unlike other competitors, Linux just wont go away ...  George Mitchell | 12/28/07
Ironic isn't it?  Linux User 147560 | 12/28/07
I Agree - Slow, But Steady, Gain in Market Share...  BanjoPaterson | 12/29/07
Simply NOT true. Desktop market share  No_Ax_to_Grind | 12/30/07
Absolute  Suicida| | 12/30/07
We voted with our feet  rgetsla | 12/30/07
Doesn't go away, doesn't gain market.  No_Ax_to_Grind | 12/28/07
Funny! You call Linux an ugly wart ...  George Mitchell | 12/28/07
Read it again.  No_Ax_to_Grind | 12/28/07
run a bootleg copy of Windows  Ole Man | 12/31/07
this just vvalidates my predictions  Linux Geek | 12/28/07
Its my Linux  dope.smugglaz@... | 12/28/07
Its my Linux  dope.smugglaz@... | 12/28/07
My real world experience  daMan25 | 12/28/07
linux is obsolete  qmlscycrajg | 12/28/07
How so? and Compared to what?  Laff | 12/28/07
Maybe he needs a newer version  voska1 | 12/28/07
Not with the Beryl 3D cube  Don Collins | 12/28/07
Oooh - EYE CANDY  Confused by religion | 12/28/07
Seems that can be  Linux User 147560 | 12/28/07
Another reality check  gwzap2008 | 12/30/07
The worst place for Linux is the bottom of the barrel...  voyager529 | 12/28/07
Agree...  cornpie | 12/28/07
Linux makes the perfect hobbyist's  alaniane@... | 01/03/08
It's more than just price  Chad_z | 12/28/07
Not really  GuidingLight | 12/28/07
Snicker ... smirk  Confused by religion | 12/28/07
The question is  Michael Kelly | 12/28/07
Wanna bet?  No_Ax_to_Grind | 12/28/07
Guess what Axey  Sabz5150 | 12/28/07
For every one you show me  Michael Kelly | 12/29/07
Laugh-a while you can  Chad_z | 12/30/07
Afraid not,  No_Ax_to_Grind | 12/28/07
Windows has a per host license, not needed for Linux servers.  B.O.F.H. | 12/29/07
CentOS is FREE  Rebel_Pride | 12/29/07
Are you new to IT, Business or Linux?  B.O.F.H. | 12/29/07
Red Hat Network and SuSE off support  Rebel_Pride | 12/30/07
You are still obsessing over distribs.  B.O.F.H. | 12/31/07
No argument  No_Ax_to_Grind | 12/30/07
I would suspect that Linux desktop usage would be largely unreported.  B.O.F.H. | 12/30/07
A lot of companies are making a transition  Rebel_Pride | 12/30/07
RE: 2008: Linux's year on the desktop  tshinder@... | 12/28/07
Might be you then...  Linux User 147560 | 12/28/07
RE: 2008: Linux's year on the desktop  lsatenstein@... | 12/28/07
By bying Novell, that's how.  bjbrock | 12/28/07
It's not just Walmart....  techboy_z | 12/28/07
Robin starts the celebration a little early!  ShadeTree | 12/28/07
And yet  Linux User 147560 | 12/28/07
Big Yawn  ShadeTree | 12/29/07
A single stat  Linux User 147560 | 12/29/07
Just saying it ain't so ....  ShadeTree | 12/30/07
It remains at less than  alaniane@... | 01/03/08
You have to give Linux fans one thing...  No_Ax_to_Grind | 12/28/07
Optimism breeds progress  Michael Kelly | 12/28/07
Good point  voska1 | 12/28/07
Yet to be determined.  No_Ax_to_Grind | 12/28/07
And yet  Linux User 147560 | 12/28/07
And like I replied to that post....  ShadeTree | 12/29/07
Yes, and I replied to you!  Linux User 147560 | 12/29/07
Your reply was as empty ....  ShadeTree | 12/30/07
Progress? In what way?  No_Ax_to_Grind | 12/28/07
Well it would seem that your  Linux User 147560 | 12/28/07
Gee, I thoiught  No_Ax_to_Grind | 12/29/07
Well a lot of good that does  Linux User 147560 | 12/29/07
Check the discount bins for those books!  B.O.F.H. | 12/29/07
You know  voska1 | 12/28/07
Don't hold your breath!  ShadeTree | 12/29/07
So what's your take?  Linux User 147560 | 12/29/07
Again ...  ShadeTree | 12/30/07
It is a well known fact  Linux User 147560 | 12/30/07
When that single web site reflects stats ....  ShadeTree | 12/31/07
That population  alaniane@... | 01/03/08
i seem to remember a few years back when walmart tied to sell low end  SO.CAL Guy | 12/28/07
How time flies...  zkiwi | 12/28/07
My wife said the same thing about Vista  voska1 | 12/28/07
RE: 2008: Linux's year on the desktop  korlaplankton | 12/28/07
I think you have it all backwards  People | 12/28/07
RE: 2008: Linux's year on the desktop  MarkyGoldstein | 12/28/07
Linux is no more a choice for consumers today than it was yesterday!  andrej770 | 12/28/07
Market demographics  Don Collins | 12/29/07
fat chance  CobraA1 | 12/28/07
Microsoft should release cheap/free compact Windows  killerbunny | 12/28/07
As long as it's free...  Don Collins | 12/29/07
My grandma almost killed my Linux machine  killerbunny | 12/28/07
Was that an attempt at humor?  Linux User 147560 | 12/28/07
RE: 2008: Linux's year on the desktop  thirdshiftcoder@... | 12/28/07
2008, Microsoft year to buy hardware resources  Boot_Agnostic | 12/29/07
What dweeb keeps pushing this theory?  B.O.F.H. | 12/29/07
Lots of Positive Changes Coming From (X/K)ubuntu  just^me | 12/29/07
Ubuntu is TRASH!  Rebel_Pride | 12/29/07
PCLinuxOS is way better than Ubuntu - just look at Distrowatch  Don Collins | 12/29/07
PCLinuxOS are you kidding me!  Rebel_Pride | 12/29/07
Distrowatch figures - the distros that thousands of people are using  Don Collins | 12/30/07
No you are incorrect... Red Hat & SuSE ~  Rebel_Pride | 12/30/07
Downloading Fedora live CD now to test  Don Collins | 12/30/07
My Mom is 65 and she uses Fedora8...  Rebel_Pride | 12/30/07
You have never even tried them, have you ?  bruceslog | 01/02/08
RE:Ubuntu is TRASH!  n0neXn0ne | 12/30/07
RE: 2008: Linux's year on the desktop  swman14 | 12/29/07
Which of the 300+ distros should I learn?  killerbunny | 12/29/07
300+ distros  whooliebacon | 12/29/07
Just a couple  pablo Dante | 12/31/07
RE: 2008: Linux's year on the desktop  j.reed@... | 12/29/07
Wasnt 2006 and 2005 the year of linux?  otaddy | 12/29/07
I'll be sitting  Blogsworth | 12/30/07
Robin, you struck a nerve!! I think you predictions are on the mark.  DonnieBoy | 12/29/07
Naw, no nerve. Everyone wants to say how foolish  No_Ax_to_Grind | 12/30/07
Not even close to foolish  j.m.galvin | 12/30/07
You mistake Steve Jobs' vision...  Confused by religion | 12/30/07
Of course Jobs sees Apple everywhere!  MarkHarrison | 01/02/08
Awesome points....  gwzap2008 | 12/30/07
Ghosts of Betamax  JVene | 01/01/08
No consumer cares (some don't even know) what OS they run.  JonathonDoe | 01/02/08
Master Joe Says...  MasterJoe | 01/02/08
The Sooth-Sayer says  Ole Man | 01/02/08
Did you not read "Ghosts of Betamax"  hbashman@... | 01/02/08
RE: 2008: Linux's year on the desktop  info@... | 01/02/08
why linux is free  billw1234 | 01/02/08
Actually, the reverse is true  Ole Man | 01/02/08
RE: 2008: Linux's year on the desktop  salliemander63@... | 01/02/08
Sometimes you have to pay attention, what else have you missed  hbashman@... | 01/02/08
RE: 2008: Linux's year on the desktop  greybert-@... | 01/02/08
also...  evilkillerwhale@... | 01/02/08
Vista sucks so I have moved to Linux...  mikifinaz1@... | 01/02/08
RE: 2008: Linux's year on the desktop  sackbut | 01/02/08
RE: 2008: Linux's year on the desktop  alex.inman@... | 01/02/08
DIE, Microsoft, DIE!  Likewow | 01/02/08
Windows users stay where you are!  Ole Man | 01/02/08
LOL, Hear Hear!!!  mdsmedia | 01/04/08
Windows Versus All LInux Distros  gwzap2008 | 01/02/08
RE: Windows Versus All LInux Distros  green alien | 01/03/08
You haven't heard...  aallord | 01/03/08
New gadgets pave the way for Linux  InnocentBystander | 01/03/08
You get it!  R HarrisZDNet Moderator | 01/03/08
Advertise, advertise, advertise  Boot_Agnostic | 01/03/08
3.5 million Linux desktops shipped in what.. a week?  stevey_d | 01/03/08
Wouldn't that be apple to oranges in comparison  Boot_Agnostic | 01/04/08
The article is interesting. The Headline sucks!!  mdsmedia | 01/04/08
RE: 2008: Linux's year on the desktop  jfreedle2@... | 01/05/08
Symposium or just plain Hosium?  vengier@... | 01/09/08
SSDD  fineware | 01/09/08
Are you kidding ME?  mrdood_99205@... | 01/09/08
Message has been deleted.  mikeholli | 01/09/08
Robin..Funny man  mikeholli | 01/09/08
News Flash Linux to reach single figures!!!  tonymcs@... | 01/09/08
PC that works  davidsarmstrong | 01/09/08
One OS Fits All! (Right!) A Cisco 2600 Desktop- No REALLY!  jward01 | 01/09/08
I don't think it will be that quickly  Thralni | 01/10/08
RE: 2008: Linux's year on the desktop  neonoma | 01/10/08
It's been done before  mikeholli | 01/10/08
RE: 2008: Linux's year on the desktop  wjgrimm | 01/10/08
Microsoft software for free  cbcoughlin@... | 01/10/08
RE: Mike Cox  rattatatt@... | 01/11/08
Linux not quite ready for most consumers  hitchhiker49@... | 01/20/08
Linux could be viable OS but needs to be more user friendly  Ole Man | 02/06/08

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